The whole kerfuffle about the CityPlace Sam’s Club got my curiosity up. I know what my internal emotions tell me about the construction of more box stores and their barren, concrete parking lots, but what does it really look like? What are the facts? It actually wasn’t the CityPlace Sam’s that drove me to put together the information that follows. Rather, it was responses to rumors about a Costco at the old Steakley Chevrolet location at Northwest Highway and Abrams Road. In a June 2014 Lakewood Advocate blog posting, a reader comments: “YES! this would be awesomeness to have our own Costco!”
But why? There’s a Target (at Medallion Shopping Center) within 1,000 feet of there, a Sam’s Club about 2,000 feet away, a Walmart sitting on top of that same Sam’s Club (at TimberCreek Crossing), and yet another SuperTarget about 3,000 feet down Abrams.
Costco in the Dallas Regional Area
I get that four existing big boxes within a half-mile might not be enough. Costco, after all, has a fanatical following. Well, then how many Costco stores do we have in the Dallas area and how far does one need to travel to get to one?
There are five. It’s about 15 miles from that old Steakley location to the Plano Costco. Most Lake Highlands residents would need to drive about 20 minutes. Someone living near the Arboretum would need to drive about a half-hour.
The Lewisville, Carrollton, and Plano corridor is especially well taken care of by Costco. I’ve added 5-mile radii around each of the 5 Costco locations.
Note to Costco: It appears that you might want to consider Irving and Mesquite locations.
Drive Time vs. Radius
Costco location planners are pretty smart though. They recognize that since they are located next to major freeways that radius is not as important as drive time. In Dallas, I’ve found that my average driving speed is 20 to 30 mph. Assuming an average drive speed of 30 mph and that someone is willing to drive a whole 20 minutes to buy their case of Cottonelle, we can see that quite a bit of the northern suburbs and the southwest suburbs are covered. Even the northern part of University Park can make it to the Dallas North Tollway Costco in about 20 minutes.
That’s the Costco location story. Again, an Irving and Mesquite location would pretty much seal the Costco deal for the regional area.
Sam’s Club Coverage
But now let’s start looking at the Sam’s Club warehouses. There are 13 locations in the Dallas area. Those living near White Rock Lake are lucky enough to have access to three Sam’s within 5 miles. This map assumes a 20-mph average drive time for 20 minutes.
Sam’s Club and Costco Overlay
Now, let’s assume that Costco and Sam’s Clubs are equal. You just want to buy in bulk. What does the overlay look like?
Assuming a 5-mile radius, five Costco locations, and the 13 Sam’s Clubs nearest Dallas, then everything is pretty much blanketed except that same band from Colleyville through Irving and into South Dallas.
Adding Target and Walmart to the Mix
Some of us want to get in and get out with our to-do lists. We like bulk pricing, but our households aren’t the size of a small business. Accordingly, Target and Walmart are additional “big box” solutions for us. (Not to mention, there are some items that aren’t worth buying at the warehouse clubs.)
There are more than 40 Target stores in Dallas-Fort Worth. This picture isn’t perfect, as I had to cut off the definition of Dallas somewhere. I used a radius of 3 miles in this case. Otherwise, it would be one big overlap. Except for much of southern Dallas, far West Dallas, and Grand Prairie, most people in North Texas are less than 3 miles from a Target store.
According to Walmart.com, there are 536 stores in Texas, with 172 of those within 100 miles of downtown Dallas, 137 within 50 miles, and 91 within 25 miles.
With a smaller 1.5-mile radius parameter, and assuming the 64 Walmart stores within 20 miles of downtown Dallas, it looks like this. Notice again the lack of stores in the same southern corridor. At a 5-mile radius, the only spot not covered is a tiny sliver of Interstate 45 near Hutchins.
Walmart and Target covering Freeways
What’s more interesting is the overlay (see below) of Walmart (red) and Target (blue). There is hardly any freeway uncovered except a bit of 635 south of Plano, parts of the Dallas North Tollway, and Interstate 35E. Perhaps we can slide a big box into the buildout of the Trinity Toll Road.
Target + Walmart + Costco + Sam’s Club
Now, let’s overlay all of these big boxes. For the sake of analysis, I assumed the average customer would probably shop within 1.5 miles of a Target or Walmart, but might drive 5 miles for Costco or Sam’s Club.
As you probably expected, it’s completely covered except for that same southern corridor.
Sam’s Club CityPlace
I didn’t start off on this analysis with any intentions of looking at CityPlace. If I didn’t discuss it though, inevitably I would expect questions. So let’s focus more on that area.
Let’s agree that most people will be driving. For the purposes of analyzing Sam’s Club locations, and for this CityPlace discussion, I only looked inside of Dallas proper. First, we’ll assume an average driving speed of 20 mph and that a customer does not want to drive more than 15 minutes. Already you see a significant amount of overlap. In fact, a few of those Lakewood hipsters can get to three different Sam’s Club locations within 15 minutes. Lake Highlands get its choice of two Sam’s Club locations.
Now let’s add in the Sam’s CityPlace location to the same mix.
What news markets does Sam’s get with the CityPlace location? The picture pretty much tells it all, but you will see downtown, the southern part of Uptown, and a tiny bit of South and West Dallas.
Of course, this analysis does not even address the fact that there is a Target already there at CityPlace.
Summary Analysis
If we only consider Costco, Sam’s Club, Target, and Walmart, we can see that the Dallas area is well-served by big boxes. There is absolutely no world-class reason to change zoning to bring residents yet another. Almost everyone in the area has clear, easy access to a big box. If anything, there might be support for a big box in the Irving to Southern Dallas band.
Many people have a fanatical allegiance to Costco. However, almost everyone in Dallas is within a 30-minute drive time of one already. If anything, there might be a justification for a southern Costco or Mesquite-area Costco.
Sam’s Clubs are well represented as well. The new CityPlace location will likely cannibalize customers from the Lake Highlands and the I-30 stores. It’s clear why Sam’s wants the new location though: The belief that those living in Uptown as well as East Dallas near Central will bleed off to this Sam’s Club and not have to drive as far.
Sam’s Club surely wants to be near CityPlace. Costco might want to add that old Steakley Chevrolet location. That’s smart, competitive business. As a great city, that doesn’t mean that we should change zoning to support their business purposes when a 10-minute drive for most people will do it.
George Lewis writes about food trucks for SideDish. His other interest include data-gathering and map-making.
