Imagine bringing in a better Max Domi, a better Luke Glendening, and a better Joel Kiviranta. That’s exactly what Jim Nill accomplished by signing Matt Duchene, Craig Smith, and Sam Steel, respectively. Better yet, Nill spent only $4.8 million to do it. That’s less than 6 percent of the cap—per the fancy stats—to add six points in the standings. Not bad. Now what could Nill do with an extra $3.25 million?
That’s the annual average salary of longtime middle six center Radek Faksa. Faksa has been a staple of Dallas’ center depth for Nill’s entire tenure. He’s been the tip of the spear for some of hockey’s best defensive lines over the years. Back in the era of Jim Montgomery and Rick Bowness, he was essential, hence his contract. Now he’s a relic of past regimes, hence the need to move out his contract, which runs for two more years with that $3.25 million average annual cap hit.
Faksa is the logical pivot point to extend the Stars’ excellent offseason thus far. The 29-year-old is the only moveable contract Dallas has, not just in terms of logistics but in terms of value to other teams as a strong defensive center. For the Stars to keep improving, moving out $3 million on their fourth-line center to upgrade their defense is the best play. Because while the Stars were a good goals against team this year, that’s different from being a team with a strong blueline.
Pete DeBoer likely agrees with that sentiment. The Stars head coach likes to emphasize one thing in particular when it comes to defense. “Breaking out the puck in your own end for us is the one thing we talk about more than anything,” he said at a 2022 coaching conference. Problem is, his team wasn’t very good at it last year. Per Corey’s Sznajder’s tracking data, Dallas was 18th in breaking out of the zone with possession. That’s no small thing since unsuccessful breakouts have a 75 percent chance of losing you the puck altogether and probably why DeBoer stresses it so much. Offense and defense start with territory won or lost. To that end, the Stars struggled to align designed efficiency (clean exits) with operational efficiency (having the blueline to deliver that).
It’s worth revisiting the playoff defense pairs since, except for Joel Hanley, those are the pairs we’re likely to see to start the season. In 19 postseason games, only Thomas Harley paired with Hanley (highlighted in green) had a positive goal differential at even strength. As for Miro Heiskanen on his weak side next to Ryan Suter, and Esa Lindell with Jani Hakanpaa (both highlighted in red), well, see for yourself.
Some of this can be chalked up to inconsistent goaltending by a worn-out Jake Oettinger. But most of it can be chalked up to the Stars defensemen not driving play. In fact, Dallas was the fifth-worst team in the postseason, getting just 1.15 points per game from its blueline. Most of that bottom line was buffered by Harley’s phenomenal nine points at even strength, which was more than the Suter-Heiskanen pair combined despite the 21-year-old playing third-pair minutes.
This is where Faksa’s money can make a difference. The easiest thing to do would be to dump his cap onto a team that can use Faksa’s skill set. Just because he’s obsolete in Dallas doesn’t mean he won’t be useful elsewhere. On that front, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Anaheim make for viable targets. With former Selke winner Sean Couturier coming off two back surgeries and only the fresh-faced duo of Noah Cates and Morgan Frost backing him up, Philadelphia needs veteran pivots. Chicago and Anaheim also lack center depth. On its own, dumping Faksa’s cap and adding a pick to sweeten the deal does nothing. But it makes room for two things: a free agent or more financial room to trade.
The former is out of the question, but I want to talk about it anyway. There’s only one name left in free agency who would plausibly interest the Stars, and Stars fans would perish the thought: Matt Dumba, the ex-Minnesota Wild defenseman who knocked Joe Pavelski out in the first round of the playoffs. No matter what fans think of Dumba, though, I don’t think GMs and management see it the same way. They’re more likely to see Dumba as the veteran top-four defensemen who was elite before injuries caused an abrupt decline in his game. It’s not a move I would advocate; he’s not the territorial defenseman I think Dallas needs, and like Tyler Seguin, Dumba’s injuries appear to have permanently altered his game. But it is a move that could shift Heiskanen back to his strong side, which brings myriad benefits. Dumba still grades out as a defender who can beat forecheckers and deny zone entries. His acquisition could force Suter to accept a lesser role, since it could easily shift the top four into some mixture of Heiskanen with Lindell and Harley with Dumba, or vice versa.
However, that’s not the move I think would level up Dallas’ blueline. Enter Washington’s Nick Jensen. The right-shot defender has three years left on his deal at an average annual salary of $4 million, and he’s exactly what the Stars need.
The 32-year-old grades as having a strong defensive impact—note, too, his odd, remarkable ability to draw far more penalties than he takes—but unlike Dallas’ shutdown defenders, Jensen can drive play going the other way. DeBoer loves clean zone exits, and, wouldn’t you know it, per data from AllThreeZones, only 19 defenders were better at exiting the zone with possession last year than Jensen. (Yep, that’s even better than Heiskanen.) Finally Heiskanen could be partnered with someone who could actively free him from doing the heavy lifting for what feels like every single shift. Alternatively, Jensen could be Harley’s mentor. Either way, Dallas gets better at something their coach wants more of, and given that Washington is rebuilding, Jensen stands to be available. Logistically, Faksa would need to be packaged with someone else, possibly Jani Hakanpaa, to make the money work for the Capitals. It might require a third team to make the cap work, along with a strong asset incentivizing that team to play along. That won’t be easy, but it will be worth it.
Faksa’s potential departure would be fitting since it’s a symbolic reminder that progress is not linear. Faksa was a first-round pick with a strong pedigree and an even bigger story. While his offense didn’t develop the way fans or the organization would have wanted, he quickly became a valuable engine toward chasing matchups. And just when it seemed like that offense might develop, it didn’t. Instead of being developed into something more dynamic, he was pigeonholed into being a grinder. By Faksa’s own admission, it was exhausting. Taking a step forward doesn’t matter much if you’re not on the right road.
Yes, Nill’s offseason moves have been great, but they make the Stars better at what they were already good at. It’s entirely possible for them to get worse at what they already lack if they’re gambling on Suter’s game not atrophying even further at age 39, or Lindell and Hakanpaa punting opportunities to generate offense, or even that Harley and Nils Lundkvist are guaranteed forward progress in what will be their first full seasons. Granted, I believe that Harley and Lundkvist will be fine, but it must be accounted for. So, too, must Suter’s deleterious effect on Heiskanen’s game.
Dallas is on the verge. The Stars could make history next year, but not without fixing a glaring weakness. Faksa’s cap could be the key to solving it, if Dallas can find the right home for him. It’s the best way to make sure that the next playoff run will be worth more than the last.
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