The Astros’ first of just two visits to Arlington under MLB’s revamped scheduling format was, in one sense, far more important for Houston than it was for Texas.
The Astros came into the four-game series trailing the Rangers by five games, making this a crucial opportunity to revive their A.L. West hopes. They ended up taking three of the four games, tightening the gap in the A.L. West to three games. But what the series may have shown more than anything is that the Rangers have closed a much bigger gap, both in stature and width, on the defending world champs.
In the opener on Friday, the Rangers led into the sixth inning before falling, 5-3. They won Saturday’s game, 5-2, led by a dominating performance on the mound by Nathan Eovaldi and a 15-hit attack. After allowing Houston three runs in Sunday’s eighth inning to break open a 1-1 tie, Texas promptly scored two of their own before eventually losing, 5-3. On Monday, the Rangers offense overcame a bad Martin Perez start and a 10-2 deficit by scoring nine consecutive runs, only to give the lead back the lead in the ninth.
Inning to inning, the whole series had a new, unfamiliar feel. In the five full seasons from 2017—the season after Texas’ last playoff appearance—through 2022, the Rangers finished an average of 32 games behind Houston in the A.L. West. In the abridged 2020 campaign, they were only 14 games out … but extrapolating that year’s 60-game schedule to a full 162 would have left Texas a whopping 38 games back.
A lot—a lot—of things have gone very right for the Rangers in 2023, and among them is that a bunch has gone wrong for the Astros. While the Rangers could certainly use injured ace Jacob deGrom (and, to a much lesser extent, ex-Astro Jake Odorizzi), Houston has weathered much bigger rotation absences: Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia are out for the year, Jose Urquidy’s shoulder has kept him sidelined since April, and ace Framber Valdez was held out of the Rangers series with a balky ankle. Texas had to endure more than a month without Corey Seager, but Houston was without Jose Altuve for longer and continues to play without Yordan Alvarez for a Seager-like duration.
But right now, and for the next few years, you’d take the Rangers’ shortstop and first baseman over Houston’s. You’d probably give the Astros the edge at third base (even if the numbers don’t support it at the moment), and you’d have spirited arguments about second base. The Astros have the better outfield–especially once Alvarez is back–and bullpen. The Rangers have a more reliable rotation.
Manager? A wash.
Farm system? Edge to Texas, which is not just about Evan Carter and Owen White versus Yainer Diaz and Drew Gilbert. It’s about the considerable difference in depth the Rangers have, which could enable them to make a greater impact this month on the trade market without having to push all of their best chips in. Case in point: last week’s trade for Aroldis Chapman, which cost Texas an intriguing piece in Cole Ragans but hardly an essential one.
The Rangers are also about to add a potentially elite prospect with the fourth pick in Sunday’s MLB Draft—very likely an outfielder, either Florida’s Wyatt Langford or high schoolers Walker Jenkins or Max Clark. That should further embolden them to part ways with a player at or very near the top of the system before the August 1 trade deadline in order to address a need and boost their odds to hold the Astros off this season.
There are 77 games left in the regular season. There’s a ton of baseball to be played, and the Astros are certainly capable of being four games better than the Rangers over that span, which includes another six head-to-head battles. Though this is shaping up to be a fight to the finish, it wouldn’t defy imagination for either team to eliminate its in-state rival with a week to go in the season. Both offenses are capable of lapping the league. Both rotations have had stretches of dominance. Whoever is best at limiting team slumps the rest of the way—both have endured them already—is probably going to outlast the other.
But no matter how things shake out in the West, there’s less mystery about the state of the Lone Star Series over the next handful of seasons. The gap has narrowed a lot more quickly than even the Rangers could have expected. There’s going to be far more than a Silver Boot at stake this summer, and likely for years to come. Major League Baseball is a keeper league, and no matter what happens in 2023, as far as the way these two teams are built and as far as the foreseeable future is concerned: game on.
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