Dallas had a favorable points percentage against only three opponents last season in the Discover Central division: Columbus, Detroit, and Nashville. Their overtime record (5-14), and losses in one-goal games (7-6-12) were considered by many to be what cost them, in addition to the countless injuries that ravaged their forward group. Fix that, and they could climb up the standings, right? While Dallas is finally healthy, progress is rarely linear where parity is king, and Dallas needs a great deal of progress to have any serious postseason aspirations. Over the last 10 years, not a single Cup winner has ever finished the regular season lower than third in their division. Is that where we should expect Dallas to be? Somewhere in the top three?
It’s hard to say after fewer than 10 games into the 2021-2022 season. For the most part, the Stars are right where we expected them to be: kind of good, kind of bad. They’ve exorcised their overtime demons and are top 10 in goaltending. However, Dallas continues to play not to lose at even strength: they’re 31st in shot attempts generated and 29th in shot quality (expected goals per game). Will we finally see more good, more bad, or more of the same mixture? With the Winnipeg Jets scheduled for Tuesday, we’ll get to see how Dallas fares against the old (and new) Central. It’s an eclectic group, to say the least.
Let’s start with the teams trying to find a hole below the bottom of the barrel. Arizona is in the free fall everyone expected thanks to some of the league’s worst goaltending and mounting injuries on an already thin roster. And following an offseason in which everyone wondered whether the Blackhawks could level up, the organization sunk to the kind of low that kills careers. On the ice, the additions of Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury have done nothing to improve a suspect defense while costing assets that could help stabilize their future. Off the ice, a sexual assault investigation has rightfully expunged their general manager and vice president of hockey operations. Every time a new detail comes out that makes the organization look as vile as possible, another detail is revealed to make everything somehow worse. Dallas can, and should, finish ahead of both.
The rest of the Central won’t be easy pickings. The Predators aren’t a great team, but they’ve adopted a style similar to Dallas’: play team defense, let goaltending lock the game down, and hope the power play comes alive to score that critical goal. Their only signs of life right now are rookie forward Philip Tomasino and Matt Duchene looking reborn at wing alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen. Teams like Nashville are why Dallas’ system is often criticized: without a dominating puck presence in the offensive zone, even bad teams can be in games Dallas might otherwise be able to tilt in their favor. The heads-up matchup has never been a walk in the park, either. Even though Dallas had a favorable points percentage against Nashville last season, they only won three actual games, having lost the other five in overtime. Sure, Dallas is better in the extra inning so far this season, but they’ve gone from 2.19 goals per game at even strength last season to 1.59 this season, per Natural Stat Trick. Only the lowly Blackhawks are worse at five-on-five scoring.
Winnipeg is a team that always seems to look better on paper, but this season is looking different. Adding Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon to the blueline was supposed to establish stronger team defense, but the biggest story for the Jets is the re-emergence of Pierre Luc-Dubois. After Mark Schiefele and Blake Wheeler went on COVID-19 protocol, Dubois has turned into a point-per-game player nestled between Kyle Connor and Evgeny Svechnikov. All great teams need great centers, and Winnipeg has an embarrassment of riches right now. The Jets are exactly the kind of team that can get away with playing a bad game thanks to so many quality shooters. That’s not an opinion, by the way: right now they’re one of the league’s three best shooting teams.
Speaking of great shooting teams, yes, the St. Louis Blues are up there as well. As of this writing, they’ve outscored their opponents 22-11, and that’s been without key additions who will return soon in Brandon Saad and Pavel Buchnevich. They’re the opposite of Dallas right now: their scoring is coming from prospects spreading their development wings (Robert Thomas, and Jordan Kyrou), and their veterans seem to be competing with the team’s youth in what looks like a fun bit of one-upmanship (David Perron and Vladimir Tarasenko). Stars fans might be scratching their heads wondering “Why can’t Dallas do that?” That’s a fair question, and one we can address some other time. For now, we can say two things: the Blues have a vastly more aggressive, multi-touch forecheck, and their shooting percentage (almost 15 percent!) will come down to earth.
I know a lot of yawns and mehs are directed at the Minnesota Wild, but Minnesota is the defensive team Dallas thinks it is. Right now, Minnesota is second in suppressing shot quality (xGA/60) behind only Boston, while Dallas is 19th. They’re more porous when it comes to keeping shot attempts down, ranking 16th, but that’s a lot better than Dallas’ 27th. Despite being a strong defensive team, they’re 13th in goals scored, showing that defensive responsibility doesn’t have to equate to offensive ineptitude. Kirill Karpizov has started slow, but their top line of Kaprizov paired with Joel Eriksson Ek and ex-Star Mats Zuccarello covers all the bases with elements of playmaking, defensive responsibility, and finishing ability.
Oddly enough, the team Dallas seems to have the most in common with is the Colorado Avalanche. Like Dallas, expectations are high, and the Avalanche’s top players haven’t been their top players. Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog have been productive but not their usual selves. Possession-wise, they’re not controlling the puck, and their special teams haven’t been the difference. While Colorado might look a little wounded, they’ve been without top-four defender Devon Toews, and you better believe their power play is not gonna stay a bottom-five unit as long as MacKinnon and Cale Makar stay healthy.
There aren’t many lessons we can take away from sample sizes, but that doesn’t mean we’re without history. Right now Dallas has yet to win a game in regulation thanks to a style that wants games as tight as possible. Ignoring Chicago, every team in the Central can outchance them either in raw shot attempts or raw shot quality, per the above chart from MoneyPuck. John Klingberg’s injury exposed Dallas not having the blueline depth Minnesota can boast, while slow starts from Tyler Seguin and Roope Hintz could mean their depth at center might not compete with Winnipeg’s, either. Except for Miro Heiskanen, Dallas doesn’t have a star that can take over a game; Colorado has two in MacKinnon and Makar. And their overall depth remains a question mark, unlike St Louis. Does Dallas deserve a spot within that top four?
In fairness, Dallas looked strong against Vegas the other night. Finally getting healthy seemed to inspire the kind of effort Rick Bowness has criticized (read: shouted at) them for lacking. It was a dominant performance, one they should be looking to replicate each and every game. But Vegas was playing with half a deck, and coming off the tail end of a back-to-back, Dallas’ third bout against a team doing so. The Stars simply can’t squander these opportunities and expect to develop better habits against the Central teams that are finding their stride.
It’s easy to get lost in the vision of returning to the Cup Finals, but to get ahead, they have to get started with success against the Central. It’s looking like a tall task.
