The average Dallas resident is now 600 percent more likely to catch COVID-19 than they were in early June, according the Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index. Low vaccination rates and rising cases, primarily driven by the delta variant, have created the aggregate increase in vulnerability between the end of June and the end of July.
Different areas of town are experiencing the increase at different rates. The ZIP code with the highest vulnerability right now is 75228 in East Dallas, which had a 19.76 vulnerability rating at the end of July, but only a 1.81 score at the end of June. East of Central Expressway, ZIP code 75243 went from 3.65 to 19.66 on the vulnerability index over the same period. While there has been a massive increase, these areas’ vulnerability are still well below the highest measure from the winter, which was 157.96 for Cockrell Hill and Oak Cliff in January.
PCCI’s Vulnerability Index identifies communities most at risk to COVID-19 infection by analyzing comorbidity rates and chronic illnesses like cancer and diabetes, population density, age, and social determinants such as access to food, medicine, employment, and transportation. These societal factors are combined with vaccination rates, mobility, and existing vaccination rates to come up with a score. The value is relative to the July 2020 peak, which is 100. Of course, vaccinated individuals are at a relatively much lower level of risk than unvaccinated, but the community as a whole is 600 percent more vulnerable. You can learn more about your ZIP code’s vulnerability here.
“Vaccinations help prevent the spread and reduce mortality of COVID-19,” read a statement from Thomas Roderick, the executive in residence at PCCI. “It is important to get the vaccine if you are medically able to do so, both for yourself, your young children, and for your neighbor who may not be able to receive a vaccination.”
Both ZIP codes are primarily people of color (each are about 25 percent White) and are mixed income neighborhoods with a variety of apartments and single family homes. The Texas Tribune analyzed the unvaccinated populations in Texas and found that communities of color were the least vaccinated in urban counties, and that lower income areas were also less likely to be vaccinated. Most of the more vulnerable ZIP codes in Dallas are in poorer and less White southern and eastern Dallas county.
Overall, Texas is 36th in the country in vaccinations, though COVID-19 hospitalizations in the state quadrupled in July. About 99.5 percent of Texans who died from the pandemic since February were unvaccinated, Texas Tribune reports. Only around 42 percent of Texas has been vaccinated. COVID-19 has killed 52,000 people statewide as of August 2.
“Without question, vaccinations are the key to Dallas County getting through the delta surge and hopefully ending the pandemic,” said Dr. George “Holt” Oliver, vice president of clinical informatics at PCCI via release. “The vaccinations for adults and children over 12 years old, are effective, easily obtained and quickly administered. We should all do our part to get vaccinated and encourage others to do the same. That is the way we will crush COVID.”
