The Dallas Stars have a power-play problem, which is strange given that they haven’t had a power-play problem in years. In fact, over the last three seasons, their average PP rank is fifth in the league. Not only do they have players like Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov healthy again, but they’ve had more time to refine their tactics on the man advantage tactics. So why is it suddenly an issue? To be honest, I don’t think Dallas has a power-play problem at all. I think they have a problem with luck.
Just to be clear, I don’t consider “luck” a satisfactory explanation, which we’ll get to in a second. For now, let’s just focus on special teams in particular, which have always fascinated me. You’d be hard-pressed to think of any other sport where 20 percent of the game is played in a dramatically different fashion than the other 80 percent. At even strength, hockey is one of the most dynamic sports on earth, but on special teams, players turn a game that I’d argue has more in common with prizefighting to one that better resembles chess. Tactics take shape over an otherwise free-flowing game. Just like there are common opening tactics in chess—the Italian Game, the Sicilian Defense, the Ruy-Lopez, etc.—power plays use specific formations, such as the umbrella, the spread, and more. Special teams even have their own historical journey; the most famous formation, the 1-3-1, started after the 2012-2013 lockout, when coaches took more time to study the European game.
So how good is Dallas at playing this game? If measured only by what they accomplish most frequently, then I’d argue “very.” Dallas is fifth in the NHL in scoring chances per game on the man advantage according to Natural Stat Trick. Armed with one unit led by Miro Heiskanen and the other by John Klingberg, the Stars are doing a solid job of generating quantity and quality.
Power Play shots per HockeyViz
Where they’re generating chances also bodes well for their future, as seen above. Dallas frequently creates right in between the dots—note the dark orange area, indicating a higher-than-average rate—and just below the right dot, which has been money for Tyler Seguin and Joe Pavelski.
Now for the catch: if they’re an above-average power-play team, why are they scoring only at a league-average rate? How can a team spearheaded by two Norris-level defenders and names such as Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Pavelski, Seguin, and Jamie Benn call themselves merely average?
Again, they aren’t. But there are problems, and one of them has to do with the irreversible trend over the last 20 years, which is that power-play opportunities have flat-out declined.
Chart and data courtesy of Arik Parnass and the Special Teams Project
It’s tough to say why that is. Perhaps there’s a correlation with hockey finally purging itself of the once-ubiquitous “enforcer” role, whose sole purpose was to accumulate penalty minutes. Perhaps it’s something else. Officiating has been a source of valid outrage since last season’s playoffs, when Steven Stamkos revealed that referee Chris Lee didn’t call a cross-checking penalty on Islanders defenseman Scott Mayfield against Nikita Kucherov because, Stamkos alleged, Lee said it wasn’t “malicious.” Things were supposed to change with the expressed crackdown on cross checks, and they have, but that doesn’t explain why power-play opportunities have declined for Dallas, specifically.
There is a simple explanation for Dallas’ struggles on the man advantage after all: Dallas is dreadful at drawing them. They’re dead last 32nd in the league in PP time per game at just a shade over two power plays. Want more? On average, players drew penalties at an average rate of .67 per game last season. The only players on Dallas’ roster who eclipsed that were Rhett Gardner, Joe Pavelski, Denis Gurianov, Ty Dellandrea, Andrew Cogliano, Jason Dickinson, and Nick Caamano. Most of those players aren’t on the current roster, and even if Gurianov should escape Rick Bowness’ doghouse at some point, we’re talking about just one dependable player—Pavelski—capable of drawing penalties consistently.
Dallas has a really lethal power play, but it’s always collecting dust. Is there a solution? That’s the hard part. In the past, it has been argued that drawing penalties is a skill. If that’s true, then, as seen above, Dallas doesn’t have players who do it frequently enough. Hockey-Graphs did a more extensive breakdown with more recent data revealing that drawing penalties might be more of a habit than a skill, but only if you’re a forward. If that’s true, where does that leave Dallas?
I don’t know. I don’t believe they need to change much on the power play itself. Sure, there are always things that can change, and it’s worth asking whether the Stars can be even better. Pavelski’s not being a net-front guy for so long despite making his name as one was a head-scratcher last season. This season, the deployment of specific players might be an example of “overthinking things”: Seguin, Benn, and Ryan Suter lead the team in TOI per game on the man advantage—yes, over Heiskanen, Klingberg, and Pavelski—and I don’t believe anybody except the coaching staff considers that the correct hierarchy. Going back to the shot chart, you’d also like to see a heavier net-front presence, which Dallas lacks and could possibly explain why their shooting percentage was below average (previously 18th) until the Winnipeg game. Regardless, they’re creating a lot of chances frequently, which is better than capitalizing on fewer chances intermittently.
If anything, their power-play problems might be peripherally tied to their even-strength problems. Dallas is not a team that plays with a lot of pace at even strength. That’s not a criticism; it’s just a function of Rick Bowness’ style of taking a very predictable approach to entering the zone. A more static system spares opponents from thinking or defending dynamically. Without a heavy forecheck (although to be fair, it’s come alive in spurts more recently), cycle, or rush, Dallas doesn’t have the puck often enough to move their legs just a little harder to get defenders to cheat, and thus capitalize on their mistakes. If the Stars can improve that, it’s possible they also “fix” the power play.
Will that happen? That’s part of what makes hockey one of the greatest games on earth. When it comes to problems, the solutions aren’t always about expert planning and crackerjack timing. With a little bit of luck, sometimes the solutions just happen … even when you aren’t doing too much different.
