Texas Rangers fans would like to forget the 2014 season altogether. It was a disaster. Because of injuries, the team’s two pricy new additions — first baseman Prince Fielder and right fielder Shin-Soo Choo — basically contributed no more value (and, in Fielder’s case, even slightly less) than they could have gotten from any readily-available, decent back-up major leaguer. The team finished last, behind even the lowly Houston Astros, in the American League West with only 67 wins.
Of course, the idea of Fielder and Choo possibly returning to some semblance of their former selves, plus a full season of pitcher Derek Holland back on the mound should’ve been reason enough to hope for a nice bounceback this year. But the losses of second baseman Jurickson Profar and ace starter Yu Darvish make it hard to harbor any hopes for a playoff run.
The nation’s baseball writers certainly aren’t expecting the Rangers to play meaningful games in September, let alone October. USA Today is predicting a fourth-place finish (ahead of Houston, at least). Four out of the five CBS Sports experts are saying it’ll be another last-place campaign — and the fifth fellow slots them in fourth. ESPN’s experts don’t factor them into the playoff picture. The Rangers are nowhere to be found in the picks by Sports Illustrated‘s panel either, and the magazine slots them 24th of the 30 MLB teams in its season preview power rankings. SB Nation says the loss of Darvish dropped the Rangers behind the Astros in the division. (At least the Rangers can still boast that they dominate baseball fandom in Texas.)
Even the homers at the Dallas Morning News can’t bring themselves to be optimistic — though five of the eight of them are calling a third-place finish in the division. A lot would have to break right for the team this season for that to happen.
More objective, statistically-based models share this view. FanGraphs says it’ll be a last-place, 73-win campaign and gives the Rangers a 3.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Baseball Prospectus runs its numbers to simulate 50,000 seasons, and the Rangers averaged 78.6 wins, good for fourth place and 17.8-percent playoff odds. (By contrast, the Angels are tops in BP’s ranking for the AL West, with a 69.6-percent playoff chance.)
Last year I was right that the Rangers would miss the playoffs. I was also right that they’d finish second in 2013 and miss the playoffs (unless you consider a tie-breaker game to qualify for a Wild Card game the playoffs, which you shouldn’t.) And I called their second-place finish in 2012 too. Never mind all the many other factors I got wrong — like win totals and division winners. It’s time again for my bold prediction.
I don’t think they’ll play as lousy this year as they did last. I don’t think Fielder and Choo will ever be worth the money the Rangers laid out for them, but they are both still much better than they were in 2014. And Adrian Beltre will continue his Hall of Fame-worthy career. Maybe new manager Jeff Banister will prove to a strategic genius. They’re still not going to be competitive in their division because the Angels and the Mariners and the A’s all look better. So: 76 wins and fourth place. Book it.
The season begins at 9:05 p.m. tonight in Oakland against the Athletics. The first home game in Arlington is 3:05 p.m. Friday against Houston.
