A D Magazine Guess-tigation

After one meeting this morning and before another, I noticed this tweet from Mavs fan and photographer Andi Harman. If you live such a go-go lifestyle that you don't have time to click that link, I'll summarize. Ms. Harman goes on record with her prediction that Dirk Nowitzki will finish his career with more total points than the late Wilt Chamberlain. As of right this very moment, Wilt has 31,419 points and Dirk has 29,408. I happen to agree with Andi, but I got to wondering: how many points will Dirk actually finish with before he retires? To try to come up with an answer, I had to follow the trail to some pretty dark places. That's right. I had to use math.

In May, I predicted that the Cowboys would go 1-13-2. If you're not used to reading sports standings, that is one win against 13 losses and two ties. Given what a cannonball into a pool filled with broken glass the 2015 campaign has been thus far, as I asked in the headline, would 1-13-2 have been a worse season for the Cowboys? Pros: According to this, no team has ever tied twice in a season since overtime was instituted in 1974, which was also the year I and this magazine were born -- a pretty good year, all told. Since I don't think anyone is ever beating that, the Cowboys would have a permanent place in the NFL record book, alongside the mark it set in 1996 -- most players to wear a full-length mink to a grand jury hearing. Plus, all those forfeits! So, still terrible but you're getting something memorable in the exchange. Cons: No one wants to forfeit that many games in a season, no matter what. I don't even know why we're discussing it. This is dumb. Who brought this up, anyway? Jeez.

I posed the question in the headline this morning in Leading Off, but after doing so, I started to worry if I'd given enough supporting evidence for my hypothesis. Could I base my entire conclusion on one "holy smokes" quote? Well, sure. I could. But ...

I've read Michael Mooney's story about the late Chris Kyle. I've read this story that quotes Michael. I've read this blog post that links to another blog post written by Michael. I've read a lot of things about Chris Kyle, some that surprisingly had nothing at all to do with Michael. And still, I'm left with one nagging question: What did Chris Kyle think about putting fluoride in our drinking water?

The Mavs have started fairly strong this season, opening with a 3-2 record and only one really bad loss (last night, against the Portland Trailblazers). Chandler Parsons has mostly righted the ship after a terrible start against San Antonio. The other new guys have mostly fitted in. Dirk has looked like Dirk. But there is one troubling aspect that those five games have in common: the team's absolutely dreadful third quarters. How bad has it gone when the second half starts? They have been outscored 170 to 106 in the third quarter, or 34 to 21.2 on average. That is not good. Giving up 34 points is not good. Being outscored by 13 points is not good. It is all not good. So, what is up? A. The team's dominant offense has allowed it to coast a bit on defense. When the opponents make halftime adjustments to slow down the offense, the defense is exposed. B. The Mavericks have a deep roster, but the second unit is not packed with scorers. When the starters naturally begin to drop off a bit, there is no one on the bench to bail them out and bring some renewed energy on the offensive end. (Quicker version: the team misses Vince Carter way more than it thought it would.) C. During halftime at every game, Warden Hazen takes Parsons aside and threatens to pin Caretaker's murder on him, thus extending his prison stay indefinitely. By the time Parsons decides to take his chances with the warden and starts playing to win again, it is already the fourth quarter. Or maybe something else?