For such a soft-spoken individual, Miro Heiskanen was hardly shy about his goal for the 2023-24 NHL season: to become the best defenseman in hockey. While many Stars fans already regard him as such, tell that to Cale Makar, who has 47 more points in that same span, owns a Norris Trophy (awarded to hockey’s best defenseman), and a Stanley Cup. Tell that to Charlie McAvoy, whose Boston Bruins made history last year with the most wins in a single season. (McAvoy, by the way, leads all defensemen since Miro’s debut in even strength goal differential at a whopping +112.) Tell it to Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, Roman Josi—I could keep going, but you get the point.
If Heiskanen is going to stake his claim as the best, it might help to know if he’s headed in that direction. Winning a Norris of his own would help for public opinion, but truth be told, the award is a sham. Officially, the Norris goes to the defenseman who demonstrates the “greatest all-around ability.” Unofficially, as Sean Shapiro pointed out in his fantastic breakdown of Heiskanen’s impending case for the Norris, winners are lazily anointed. Seven of the last 19 Norris winners led their defensive peers in points, and the other winners were an average of seven points away from the lead going back to 2016 (ignoring Erik Karlsson’s absurd run last year). Voting for the Norris also uses plus-minus, and while smarter people than me have already ranted about it, I’ll still note that a tool that only serves as a differential within a player’s production versus his opponent’s production is one you should only take so seriously.
Those parameters don’t align well with who Heiskanen is. Stars fans need to accept the reality that the 24-year-old will never be a front-facing defender; right now, he’s not even top 50 in defensemen scoring. Thomas Harley is riding right next to him with four points apiece.
I’m not here to “figure out” the Norris. I just know what it shouldn’t be, which is a production checklist. But if not points, or plus-minus, then what? What about broad possession, like shot attempts (also known as Corsi)? That’s just plus-minus with different numbers. What about control of shot quality? This gives us a window into a player’s impact on goal differential, and, thus, their bottom line. But like a good grade on a test, it doesn’t give us much insight into their understanding of the material. For example, believe it or not, Heiskanen leads the league among defenders in expected goal differential at 70 percent (!). However, that’s just above Pierre-Oliver Joseph, Jusso Valimaki, and Marc Staal. Great grades, but that just tells us about their impact. Not their performance.
Still, Heiskanen has been making an argument for himself in other categories. The fact is, Heiskanen is a great offensive defenseman: plus-5 in even strength goal differential, and a plus-50 in share of shot attempts, both of which lead the team. More importantly for our purposes—and his, given that stated goal—Heiskanen clearly understands defense. That’s the part of his game that excels above everything else. He’s a shutdown defender in a puck mover’s body. How do we measure that, especially given how his game is one of extraordinary subtlety and grace? How do we get closer to understanding Heiskanen’s performance rather than his impact, his understanding rather than just his assessment?
Luckily for me, Corey Sznajder from All Three Zones made the hardest part the easiest. After all, if we want to assess the best defenseman, we should know a) the size of his shift-to-shift workload when it comes to defending his own zone and b) how effective he is at preventing chances that come from opponents.
Heiskanen’s last two years have seen steady growth. Despite his workload getting bigger, he continues to get better. And now he’s among the very best.
However, this isn’t enough. Good defense doesn’t rely on any one skill. How does Heiskanen perform compared to the best defenders when it comes to repeatable defensive skills, such as exiting the zone with possession, denying entries from opponents, taking away chances, and successfully retrieving pucks in the defensive zone?
Again, Sznajder’s work is way ahead of us. (I’d advise reading Corey’s work on categorizing defensemen in full.)
This data clearly show that Heiskanen is a cut above the rest in terms of preventing opponents from gaining territory and doing all the little things to defend said territory once they do. Case closed, right?
Depends on what you think about offense, which I personally think is important. The best forwards in the game can not only score at a high level, but they defend at a high level, too. Why should the standard be any different for defensemen?
In this regard, Heiskanen rates just OK. Over the last two full seasons, he’s 13th in total points. If we adjust his production for rates since he made his debut, he falls even further.
So, where does that leave us? I don’t know. I don’t believe it matters, either, as much as it might to Heiskanen. Brent Burns was voted the best defenseman in 2017, yet it was Kris Letang who took home the Cup that year. Victor Hedman was the Norris winner in 2018, but it was John Carlsson’s Capitals who made history. Colton Parayko wasn’t the top blueliner in 2019, yet he still gets to call himself a champion. That’s the most important takeaway in this discussion. Heiskanen is clearly the best at certain parts of being a defenseman in the modern era, and he is not the best at other aspects. He is, however, the best territorial defender in a team with serious Cup aspirations—a team that has earned that distinction precisely because of Heiskanen’s contributions in all three zones.
Maybe someday Heiskanen gets to have his beer and drink it, too, like Makar: the top defenseman on a championship team and the premier player at his position league-wide. For now, one step at a time. The best news for Dallas? The steps left for Heiskanen to achieve both those things keep getting smaller.
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