The playoffs are complicated. Each series is its own story, and each game is its own chapter encompassing a dozen moments and plot points. But the playoffs can also be simple. Each of those moments, those plot points, falls into one of two buckets: the things we observe and the emotions they inspire within us. That’s what we’re here to talk about.
What We Saw
At last, Stars fans can breathe a sigh of relief. It’s been hard to take the focus away from Dallas’ flaws despite an emphatic 4–0 win. They weren’t just the favorites in this series; they were seen by many as Western Conference favorites. Because of that, the storyline coming into Game 5 concerned why they needed Jake Oettinger’s heroics and Steve Spott’s power play to stay afloat rather than asserting their dominance. Tuesday night didn’t quell those fears—Oettinger and the power play once again propelled them to victory—but at least it looks like the Stars will get out in one piece and maybe, just maybe, reclaim some of their regular-season swagger.
Even strength has been the topic of discussion—and for good reason. You want to see sustainable offense, not offense that shows up just because the opponent was undisciplined. (I don’t think Marcus Foligno’s hit on Radek Faksa was intentional, but he hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.) Jason Robertson has been the most silent part of that even-strength equation, but he also has six points through five games. Going into Game 5, Tyler Seguin’s impact on expected goal share was 42 percent, the lowest of all forwards. He’s also a point-per-game player right now. How far can we take these even-strength criticisms if Dallas’ efficiency everywhere else cancels it out?
There are two ways to interpret what we’re seeing: Dallas is succeeding in spite of itself (playing past its flaws), or Dallas is succeeding within the margins of itself (weaponizing special teams to single-handedly take the series lead). It’s easy, and lazy, to say, “Well, it’s both.” Because I think there’s another layer. Fans won’t want to hear this, but guess what: Minnesota is a good team. This isn’t a squad that backed into the playoffs. The Wild were top three in the Central Division. I don’t want to gaslight fans into thinking we’re seeing a great team instead of just a very good one, but the Stars were always going to need to chip away at them rather than run them out the building.
Home ice hasn’t been a major advantage when looking at results, but the home teams have had the tactical advantage. The Stars have outshot Minnesota at home, which should be a modest relief (insofar as there even is such a thing when it comes to playoff hockey) if Minnesota manages to ensure one more game at American Airlines Center. It’s not a great sign, but it’s a good one. It’s not like home ice or the power play are going anywhere. And if the Stars can ensure they don’t need home ice the same way they don’t need even-strength offense, perhaps we should start giving them credit for being deeply opportunistic rather than deeply flawed. —David Castillo
What It Felt Like
For four games, the Minnesota Wild fucked around.
They complained and wheedled, needled and cajoled. They agitated. They dared the Stars and, perhaps even more so, the referees to do something about it.
In the fifth game, they found out.
There is a conversation to be had—and StrongSide broached it Tuesday morning—about how much longer the Stars can live so thoroughly on the man advantage while often appearing lifeless at even strength. That isn’t going away, either, even if Mason Marchment’s rebound put-in in the second period was a welcomed heartbeat for player and team alike.
But for this game—and this series, considering that Game 5 winners in series tied two games apiece advance 79 percent of the time—that doesn’t matter. What does is the Stars didn’t panic. They stopped trying to meet the Wild on their terms and instead allowed Minnesota to reckon with the consequences of continuing to agitate well after, as our Sean Shapiro noted, their act had grown thin among the officials. And then, starting with Foligno’s game misconduct, they let two early power-play goals vacuum up whatever hope Minnesota had of clawing back into this series. The Wild’s penalties have doomed them, once and for all.
That isn’t the only area the Stars won this game, mind you. They were better across the board, to such a degree that you have license to answer the question of whether this was Minnesota unraveling or Dallas’ quality shining through with a simple “yes.” Regardless, the endgame is the same. The team with more ways to win did just that, even if it hasn’t done a terribly job good job of diversifying between them. The team that needed a wide berth to maintain its preferred style ran out of room. And a series that always should have been Dallas’ at last feels like it is, even if there remains one final win to notch. —Mike Piellucci
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David Castillo
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