We’re about to witness one of the most fascinating basketball experiments in NBA history. It’s certainly one of the most interesting ones the Dallas Mavericks have conducted. Luka Doncic is a one-of-one; no one has ever played the game quite as he does. And now, just as he’s approaching his prime, the Mavericks acquired one of the greatest ball handlers ever to play alongside him. This is where the fun comes in: Doncic and Kyrie Irving simultaneously play the game of basketball as similarly and as dissimilarly as you could possibly imagine.
Doncic is big and burly; Irving is lithe and quick. Doncic baits and lulls defenders; Irving blinds them. Doncic likes to slow dance into the lane and stop himself, thereby putting a defender on his back and forcing a foul; Irving likes to knife right into the heart of things before there’s even a chance for a foul. Doncic and Irving each make a defender’s decision incorrect: Doncic, because he makes you think too much, and Irving, because he doesn’t give you time to think. Both play at a pace of their own accord, allowing them to see things everyone else on the court simply cannot. Now they will attempt to meld these two divergent styles into one cohesive attack.
There’s almost no scenario in which this pairing produces a dull outcome. If it succeeds, it will create one of the most dynamic backcourts in history. If it doesn’t, we will likely be back on “high five watch” a la the final months of Kristaps Porzingis’ time in Dallas. When a team takes a swing like this, it does so knowing there won’t be much middle ground in the results.
This much is certain: the Mavericks will now start two of the league’s best shot creators. Doncic is far and away number one in Second Spectrum’s “shot quality created” metric this season. (For context, the next four players according to that statistic are Steph Curry, Ja Morant, Nikola Jokic, and Trae Young.) Irving ranks 25th. Only two other teams possess two players both ranked in the top 25, and neither of them have Doncic. There is almost no circumstance in which we look back at the final two months of the season and don’t see the Mavericks ranked as the team with the best shot quality as well as the most open looks.
What makes Doncic and Irving special is bigger than being elite at getting their teammates juicy opportunities. They’re also two of the best in the league at hitting shots no one else can. Second Spectrum also measures the degree to which a player “outperforms” the expectation of a shot based on where the shot is taken, where the closest defenders are, and a host of other factors. Kevin Durant is atop this season’s list, which makes sense since he’s arguably the greatest bucket-getter of all time. But at number four, you’ll find Irving. Next on the list is Doncic.
Both players, adept at hitting incredibly tough shots, will now be getting the best looks of their careers thanks to the gravity the other creates. At the same time, the “others” on the roster will see the quality of their attempts increase even more, because there will most likely be very few times when one of Doncic or Irving isn’t on the floor.
The real intrigue, though, is less about what than how. The Mavericks are 29th in the league in pace and 29th in the share of their offense that comes in transition. Unsurprisingly, that means they rank last in points scored per possession on the break. Getting stops certainly helps a team create transition offense, except even when Dallas was solid defensively last season, it still ranked 29th in transition offense. You can thank Luka for that: Doncic’s overwhelming preference has been to collect the rebound and walk the ball into a halfcourt situation. The results have been tough to argue with, but it does seem like there are easier opportunities to be had, given Doncic being one of the league’s premier rebounding guards, thereby creating more chances for the Mavericks to push the ball.
Enter Kyrie. In Irving’s first game as a Maverick, Dallas scored its most points per possession in transition and posted its sixth-most share of offense on the fastbreak. One game, from a player who’d been with the team for all of 48 hours beforehand. It’s not hard to imagine the possibilities as Irving continues to settle in.
This is where Jason Kidd and his staff have their biggest challenge with this pairing. If Irving starts a possession and wants to push, is Doncic going to accept that? If Doncic starts a possession and wants to plod and prod as Irving frantically heads up the floor clapping for the ball, how will the latter handle that?
There’s a very good chance I’m overthinking this. But two things are undeniable: both of these players are offensive wizards with genius-level basketball IQs, and these players operate in very different ways. Perhaps we just see a team now capable of playing differently from possession to possession.
I know this much: the hard traps and double teams Doncic had been seeing more and more are about to fall off of a cliff. If Doncic gets trapped at halfcourt, Irving will be at the rim before anyone trying to stick to their man has any idea what happened. As our Zac Crain highlighted in his piece this week, Josh Green and Jaden Hardy will now see their minutes increase. Speed and athleticism will abound, and both Doncic and Irving know how to get players like that the ball on the move.
The Mavericks will continue to have their issues on the other end of the floor–but really, will it be appreciably worse? Losing Dorian Finney-Smith as a point-of-attack stopper is significant. Isn’t there a chance, though, that the younger, more athletic Green can be at least an approximation of Finney-Smith in that regard? Maxi Kleber is due back after the All-Star break; the Mavericks are 21st in defensive efficiency (per CleaningTheGlass.com), but they ranked 16th before his hamstring injury. I think the German’s return can possibly help Dallas to a league-average defense, which puts the team at least in the neighborhood of contention when it’s coupled with what could be a blindingly effective offense.
There are plenty of negative things you can say about Irving and the way he carries himself. While that’s not really the point of this piece, it’s hard not to let the way he talks about, I don’t know, anything not basketball-related, bleed over into the way he sees himself in the NBA landscape. I would not be shocked if the Mavericks with Irving are electric, effective, and find themselves right back in the conference finals. And I would also not be taken aback if, after a fun, cohesive run in Dallas, he decides to bolt for the Lakers or the Suns.
For now, though, Doncic has the most talented teammate he’s ever played with. Sometimes, just sending the signal that you’re trying to help a player is more important than the results. Clearly, the Mavericks are very aware of this uncomfortable truth, so they did what they felt they had to do. As for what comes next, I’ll refer you to a line from one of my favorite musical artists, the late Mac Miller: “It ain’t always great, but it’s never boring.” He was describing a dysfunctional romantic relationship, but it always struck me as applicable to so many life situations. This is one of them. Because, however it ends, I can promise you this: Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will not be boring.
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