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Football

The Cowboys Number to Know: 0.38

Or: why Dak Prescott played well, actually.
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QB1 had good reason to celebrate Sunday. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports.

The Cowboys improved to 5-2 after beating the Detroit Lions by double digits on Sunday. They still sit in third in the NFC East—suddenly the toughest division in the conference—but have a plus-30 point differential, fifth-best in the NFL and second in the NFC behind only the division rival Eagles. And yet the social media buzz surrounding the latest win was as much despair as it was joy.

The reason for much of it centers around the performance of Dak Prescott, who returned after a five-game absence caused by a thumb injury on his throwing hand. He threw for a modest 207 yards and one touchdown. But perhaps the fans were expecting a bit more from their franchise quarterback in his return.

The Nooch makes quite a case in favor of Prescott. His results may have been underwhelming, but they were not exactly bad, at least on a per-play basis. Which brings us to the number to know for the Cowboys’ Week 7 win. No, it’s not the five turnovers or the zero touchdowns allowed by the defense. This week the story comes in the form of one catch-all offensive number: 0.38.

That was Prescott’s EPA/play on Sunday—the third-best mark of the week among all NFL quarterbacks. That’s right. By at least one measure, Prescott wasn’t a mediocre quarterback who should’ve had people calling to bring back Cooper Rush. He was instead one of the most efficient passers across the NFL.

EPA stands for Expected Points Added. It comes from a model based on results in earlier games and takes factors such as down, distance, time remaining, and field position into account to predict how likely a team is to score on any given play. A quarterback’s EPA/play is essentially a measure of his ability to do the same.

Taking the game as a whole, Prescott was objectively good. But there has to be a reason for the hand-wringing by the fan base besides the low statistical production. That’s because this was more a tale of two halves rather than one game.

In the first half, Prescott completed 60 percent of his passes for a little more than 6 yards per attempt. On third down, Prescott dropped back twice. He was sacked once and threw an incompletion on a play the Cowboys needed 20 yards to move the chains.

The half ended with Dallas facing a 6-3 deficit to the struggling Lions. It was clearly a frustrating half for anyone who was expecting to see an improvement over the Rush offense of the previous five weeks. And while it’s true that Prescott didn’t get the team into the end zone in the first half, it was hardly his own fault. Take a closer look at the two drives that ended in the red zone for the Dallas offense.

The first came in the opening quarter, and it was kicked off by an impressive throw and catch from Prescott to CeeDee Lamb that went for 24 yards, the longest completion of the day for the Cowboys.

Once inside the red zone, however, Prescott never got to put the ball in the end zone. The play calls were all Tony Pollard runs before Dallas settled for a field goal. On the second trip into the red zone, Prescott did throw it. But Noah Brown fumbled at the 5 . So despite some good plays, the Cowboys had just a field goal to show for their work.

The second half went much better for the offense, and it started right out of the gate. Dallas took the lead with a run-heavy drive and salted the game away in the fourth quarter with two more touchdown drives. And in this half, Prescott was undeniably successful. He completed 10 passes on 12 dropbacks (taking one sack) and accounted for five first downs. The half culminated with the first touchdown catch for rookie Peyton Hendershot (on National Tight Ends day, no less).

Prescott’s final numbers weren’t explosive, but they were still very good. His 76 percent completion rate didn’t come on dump-offs and check-downs. On average, Prescott threw deeper than any other quarterback this week, averaging 10.8 air yards per attempt. That higher level of difficulty on his throws led to a plus-10.6 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). That was the fifth-best mark of the week.

This is great to see from the Cowboys’ perspective. The surgically repaired thumb didn’t keep him from slinging the ball when he needed to, and more importantly, it didn’t impede his ability to complete those passes. With Prescott at the helm, the receivers pose a much more significant deep threat to opposing defenses. On throws 20-plus yards downfield, Prescott not only looked good against the Lions but also has looked great his entire career. And yes, that means he’s looked significantly better than Rush when airing it out.

Prescott may not have delivered a blow-you-away performance, but it was indeed a great performance. And it was much needed after the dismal start he had in the opener against the Bucs. This team is better with Prescott under center. And with the defense continuing to dominate, this team could go a long way with just a functioning, above-average offense. The NFC is void of any top-tier teams (except for perhaps the Eagles), which leaves the playoff race wide open. While throwing only 25 passes might lead one to believe Prescott is still limited, or isn’t a significant improvement over what the Cowboys had with Rush, the numbers suggest otherwise. As long as he can maintain this level of efficiency, Prescott can lead the Cowboys through January football. There should not be a question about it.

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Dan Morse

Dan Morse

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Dan covers the Cowboys for StrongSide. He is a Pacific Northwest native & self-described nerd who has been covering the…

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