I told my pre-law class this week that something I learned early on as a lawyer was that a “successful” mediation almost always results in everyone being a little unhappy. When a case settles, invariably the plaintiff has agreed to less money than they were convinced the case was worth, and the defendant has signed off on paying more than they thought was justified. It’s rarely viewed as a win-win or even a win in just one of the rooms. Grumble, grumble.
But you have a deal. There’s finality. And an opportunity for both sides to leave the dispute behind and get back to the things they do best.
Figure this out, baseball. It’s OK if neither side “wins.” It’s not OK if the fans don’t.
In the meantime, let’s open the mailbag and model some productive back-and-forth.
What are the realistic chances that the Rangers have a future ace in Jack Leiter? — Homer Grigsby
Homer clearly has no use for the lockout. Or for Jack Leiter throwing a professional inning before scheduling an “MLB: The Show” photo shoot. And I’m here for it. Now, a future ace? You don’t see that tag thrown on a prospect very often, but in terms of a minor-league pitcher having the ingredients to at least be a longshot rather than a no-shot, Leiter fits. He has the makings of multiple advanced pitches and misses bats with more than one. He’s pitched on a big stage. He’s grown up around the game and the work that it takes when the lights aren’t on. He seems to have that plus-plus “compete” you see in the best ones.
This question prompted me to spend a few seconds coming up with a non-exhaustive list of MLB pitchers I’d think of as aces at this moment: Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Trevor Bauer (I guess?), and Corbin Burnes. In the conversation: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo, Max Fried, German Marquez.
How many of them would we have thrown that tag on before they’d reached AA, let alone made their minor-league debut? Two of them? Three? So no one really knows when it comes to pitching. But if you’re going to bet on one arm in Texas’ system to eventually get there, Leiter’s it.
Any chance of bringing Nelson Cruz back as DH? —Mark Clements
I will guess not, even if there’s no grudge about how he handled his PED suspension in 2013. As long as he has options to DH for a team with a reasonable expectation of winning in 2022—and there will be many if the NL adopts the DH—he probably will and absolutely should try to quickly land the World Series title that has eluded him (by a matter of inches).
Who are your picks for Rangers breakout players for 2022–MLB and MiLB? —Chris Cohen
Jon Gray and Davis Wendzel.
Isn’t it a no-brainer to have IKF slide back to 3rd? I don’t think there would be a better infield in MLB. —ricardo912
That appears to be the plan, but here’s the thing: 2022 is going to be about 2023 and 2024, right? Isiah Kiner-Falefa is an elite defender who will have earned the right to choose the best fit as a free agent after 2023. Will that be as an everyday player on a winner? He’ll need to hit for that to happen, and the reality is that, with Texas, he’s not going to get 1,000 at-bats to prove it the next two seasons as long as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are healthy and Josh Jung doesn’t stumble.
So while I’d expect significant third base reps for Kiner-Falefa in March, if he’s getting them in April, it will probably be because the club felt Jung would be better off with a little more time in Round Rock. Career arcs being what they are, odds are that in 2024, Jung will be at third base in Texas, and Kiner-Falefa is going to be starting for someone else. You didn’t ask about 2024, I know, but the biggest decisions being made now will be filtered through a long-term lens.
Of the minor-league players acquired in last July’s trades, who do you think will have the most impact? One answer for short-term, one answer for long-term. —Mike Kinser
Short-term: I would be thrilled if Spencer Howard were the answer to this question, but I’ll say Glenn Otto. Long-term: Josh Smith.
I know it’s almost beating a dead horse, but has there been any movement or discussions within the Rangers organization about fixing the Sinclair/BallySports issues and allowing fans to actually watch games on TV this year? I know this isn’t something you typically write about, but it’s just very frustrating for streaming subscribers to only get to watch two or three games a year. —Kent Watson
Is there any update on Bally creating a streaming service or app so those of us that refuse to pay for AT&T can actually watch our Rangers? For the first time since 1982, I didn’t get to watch last summer. —Andy Kindred
I know as much about how Bally plans to make things more customer-friendly as I do about Bitcoin, flying a plane, and how Rafa gets that much spin and power and command on his open-stance forehand.
What player and/or position might the Rangers be targeting with the No. 3 pick? —@Christo75028704 Johnny U
It would be foolish to target a position, especially picking that high. It would be nearly as unwise to suggest even those in the inner circle upstairs have a bead on the player right now. Last January, Baseball America projected that the Rangers would take Miami catcher Adrian Del Castillo with last summer’s second overall pick. He ended up going 67th overall. Names like OF Elijah Green, 2B Termarr Johnson, OF Druw Jones, and RHP Dylan Lesko (high school), and 2B Jace Jung, 3B Jacob Berry, SS Brooks Lee, and OF Chase DeLauter (college) are popping up atop all the early mocks, but there’s an entire season to be played between now and the draft. A lot will change.
Can Blaine Crim do anything in the minors to prove he is a top-20 prospect, or will he just have to prove everyone wrong once he gets to the big leagues? —@TexasStarSaddle
Coming out of a small school (Mississippi College) and lasting until the 19th round (in 2019) and playing first base at 5-foot-11 all combine to mean, yes, he will have to silence doubters at every level. But he’s done it every step of the way so far, finishing a 29-homer, .906-OPS season with a flourish in Frisco and then winning the Puerto Rican Winter League batting title with a .402 clip.
Do the Rangers have a real interest in Matt Olson or is Lowe the guy? If they make a run at Olson, what would it take to get him, and what are the chances he signs an extension? —Louis Mayor
If there is to be a match there, Nathaniel Lowe is unquestionably part of the deal. He’d appeal to Oakland because he has five years of control, has already had big league success, will take a walk, and plays Olson’s position. As for what else the deal might look like, in November I suggested I could get behind Lowe, Justin Foscue, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Henriquez for Olson. It would be a lot to give up—and, I bet, still not enough. The A’s are going to get a top-30 prospect and more for the 27-year-old masher.
Who would you rather get? Sign Seiya Suzuki or trade for Matt Olson? —Michael Watson
Prefer Olson of the two. You’d obviously lose key prospects to get him, but his floor is significantly higher than Suzuki’s, and the ceiling is certainly at least as high. I’m not into hoarding prospects just to win industry beauty contests.
If we don’t sign Suzuki, what do you think of putting Solak in LF full time in spring training to see if he can take over the position? —@lfmhpj WeHo Paul Elgin
If Solak had hit in 2021 like he did in 2019, they’d find a way to get his bat into the lineup. For now, left field is unsettled enough to let him compete for the spot in camp, but he’s got to do a lot more of what he’s capable of at the plate before he’ll be considered for everyday work.
Could Tyler Glasnow be a trade option for the Rangers once the lockout ends? Seems like he could be a great fit for 2023 while giving the young guys a chance to prove themselves this season. If so, what might a realistic trade package look like? Thanks. —Ryan Denison
Huge fan, but it just doesn’t feel like a great fit. Rolling the dice on Corey Kluber made some sense given the Rangers’ goals at the time (and with a rotation that already boasted Lynn, Mike Minor, and Kyle Gibson), but you’re not getting Glasnow for a reliever and backup outfielder. He’s not going to pitch in 2022 and will be healthy but probably limited in 2023 in terms of workload. After that, he’s a free agent. Sounds more like a Dodgers, Padres, or Astros flier.
Now that we have multiple new hitting instructors who will influence the big league team and the minors, who are the players you would consider on the MLB team and in the minors that you could see benefiting the most? —John Crain
If Donnie Ecker, Tim Hyers, and Seth Conner can help Lowe find an answer for velocity up in the zone, that would be a massive development. On the farm, I would love to see Rule 5-eligible outfielders Bubba Thompson and Steele Walker take the next step. I hope it’s here, too.
With all the young arms on the 40 and in MiLB, what do you think the Ranger rotation looks like in 2023, ’24 and, ’25? —@EastofDallas Tom Cornelius
Fun question, and one of the more difficult things to project in sports. You can look at velocity and break, but that ignores mentality. You can focus on production, but you can’t assume an ability to adjust. You can talk all you want about who is wired for the grind of the role, but it’s all projection until they’ve proven at the big-league level that they can be depended on in the biggest games of the season and are just as strong in August as they are in April.
So to answer your question—and there’s zero chance that the 2023/2024/2025 rotations will be without pitchers who aren’t here now—here are some names to consider as candidates:
2023: Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Jack Leiter (though probably not in April), Cole Winn, Glenn Otto, A.J. Alexy, Spencer Howard, Kolby Allard, Cody Bradford, Brock Burke, Yerry Rodriguez, Ronny Henriquez, John King, Cole Ragans, Jake Latz, Zak Kent, Tim Brennan
2024: Ricky Vanasco, Owen White, Dane Acker, Avery Weems, Justin Slaten, Ryan Garcia, Kevin Gowdy
2025: Tekoah Roby, Mason Englert, Jose Corniell, Mitch Bratt, Larson Kindreich, Josh Gessner
Does Justin Foscue have any experience in the OF, or is he strictly 2B? What is his likely future in Texas if he progresses in his development & does not get traded? —Douglas Tatsch
There’s no rush. You send him back to Frisco and see if he can replicate his debut season—and if the right trade opportunity comes along, you decide whether the time is right to move him. It’s not a foregone conclusion that he’ll move on (or that he’ll stay in the infield, though that seems to be the prevailing thought). But he’s unquestionably a valuable asset at a position where Texas can afford to move him for something else. A good problem, as they say, and the Rangers have been short on those for the last few years aside from having a handful of starting pitchers whose careers they were able to revive and flip.
Presuming the lockout ends quickly, do you see the Rangers “going for it” and being aggressive in further player acquisitions? Or will this be a situation where they add one or two more pieces and wait to build more in the coming seasons? —Robert Lampasona
Even before the Seager, Semien, and Gray commitments, I think the blueprint also included next year’s free-agent crop and, on either side of it, the next two trade deadlines. They’re going to do this methodically.
Do guys like Glenn Otto, AJ Alexy, and Taylor Hearn have long-term rotation upside or will they be displaced when Winn, Leiter, and Vanasco are MLB-ready? —David Houten
It’s an absolutely fair question, but it’s basically unanswerable. All three have the tools to be long-term fixtures as starters, but command will be key, as will the ability to out-adjust the league. None is a stopgap. If they get displaced, it’s likely because they didn’t take that next step. And if the Rangers have “too much” starting pitching? That’s an even better problem than having Foscue behind Seager and Semien.
What are the odds of the Rangers signing Clayton Kershaw once this mess is settled? —William
I continue to believe the Dodgers and Rangers share 100 percent of that pie, and the field has no chance. Guessing where that pie gets cut would requires us to get in Kershaw’s head. The two teams would surely be thrilled to have him, albeit with health-related safeguards contractually in place. Does he want to be here? Can I watch the Super Bowl without wondering whether he and Matthew Stafford want to continue this Los Angeles thing together until both are ready to retire to the Park Cities and be Coach Pitch dads?
Over the years the Rangers have failed to develop pitchers from the draft to the majors. I mean, Martin Perez or Derek Holland are the best I can come up with. So, with all the talent they appear to have in the minors, what’s the plan to get them to the next level? —PJ M
The stable is deeper than it’s been in a long time. The minor-league pitching is ahead of the bats, and when has that ever been the case with the Rangers? Now the trick is, as you said, getting them to the next level. The proof there will be in the production.
From the standpoint of their impact on the team, both talent and results added to longevity and leadership, who is the next:
-Michael Young (consistency, leadership, clutch)
-Elvis Andrus (fun, flash, reliability)
-Adrian Beltre (grit, clutch, desire)
-Josh Hamilton (pure skill, distraction, Roy Hobbsian)
-Colby Lewis (grit, clutch, reliability)
-Cliff Lee (lightning in a bottle, timing) —Tommy Lee
-Nobody.
-Nobody.
-Nobody.
-Nobody.
-Nobody.
-Trevor Rogers.
Stated another way: that’s sort of the beauty of it all, right? The players you mentioned above were pretty singular, and the next Rangers winner will have its own unique parts. (Though I have thrown a Colby comp on Dane Dunning before.)
How is the signing of Seager going to end up any different than when A-Rod signed? A big splash, great individual records, but it didn’t translate to team success until his salary was off the books. —Thomas Klie
It’s going to be different because the Rangers chose to surround Rodriguez with Andres Galarraga (age 39), Ken Caminiti (37), Mark Petkovsek (35), Jeff Brantley (37), and middle relievers Todd Van Poppel and Jay Powell (each about 30 and tied to a draft pick), to sink a ton into Chan Ho Park, and to trade for chemistry issues like John Rocker and Carl Everett. That was an awful mix that killed two drafts. The Rangers forfeited second- and third-rounders and failed to sign their fourth-rounder in 2001, then sat out the 2002 draft between first-rounder Drew Meyer and sixth-rounder John Connally Barnett. The idea that signing the game’s best player made Texas an immediate contender was horribly ill-advised.
Adding Semien and Gray is a much better start to the plan, and the farm system is a lot deeper now, too. This will take time and a lot more talent to come together. But the Rangers have the makings of an actual strategy this time around.
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