I am a child of the ’70s. This means that babysitting entailed plopping me in front of the television for hours on end watching whatever was on one of a few channels. One of my favorite game shows was Monty Hall’s Let’s Make a Deal, where contestants had to choose between a prize they had or what was behind Curtain No. 2. Contestants could win big or end up going home with a donkey. The decisions they made on the clock would determine their outcome.
Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison, facing a trade deadline of February 10, has essentially become a contestant on the show. Years ago, when I was director of basketball development for the team, I was in the room when these talks and decisions were made. So as we all spend the next week refreshing Twitter for trade news, I thought I’d give you an inside look at what really goes on in a front office with this “Trade Deadline Primer.” It was and is my favorite time of year—one that is hectic, exhausting, crucial, fun, and full of landmines. Here’s what you should know about how things actually work.
Rumors
Rumors are the currency of this time of year, and there are plenty of them. “Why would the Mavs want to trade Dorian Finney-Smith??” is a text I recently received. The first rule when sifting through rumors is to determine who benefits from the information getting out. There is a reason why rumors are leaked, and there are sources on all sides. The Mavs run a pretty tight ship when it comes to keeping a lid on their business. Think back three years and the Kristaps Porzingis trade with the Knicks: there wasn’t a whisper about it ahead of time. So when you see a tweet involving a Mavs player, remember that there is another team involved, and, more important, there are multiple agents involving multiple players on both sides with their own agendas and desires to establish a market for their players. The Finney-Smith rumor my friend saw could have more to do with who the other team wanted the Mavs to take on than Finney-Smith himself.
The fact that recent rumors about Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson came out also shouldn’t surprise anyone. They have been two of the most consistent and reliable players the Mavs have this year, and they’re due for big raises this summer. If I am an executive with another team, they are the first asks I am making. And once those asks are made, that executive or an agent with a player on the other team can leak that Finney-Smith, for instance, was therefore in talks. The number of wannabe Marc Steins and Adrian Wojnarowskis is increasing, and they are more than happy to run with info as they canvass everyone from general managers to equipment managers.
Which brings me to my last point on rumors: every player on every team is brought up in trade discussions every day. Dirk was off limits in my day, and Luka is today, but other than that, Harrison would not be doing his job if he weren’t casually calling around the league to see where his counterparts’ heads are, and to know that, he has to constantly throw out scenarios, gauge interest, measure market value, and read between the lines. 99.9 percent of these talks stay on the whiteboard and don’t end up in trades, but they are the basis for intel gathering and relationship building.
Contract Status
If you’re reading this, chances are you’ve fiddled with a trade machine to see what ideas work and don’t work when it comes to matching salaries. I have, too. Hell, I even made one in 2002 before they were online and publicly available.
But I assure you there is so much more to consider than raw numbers. Expiring contracts and contract lengths matter. Like it or not, players are assets in a salary-cap driven world, so with players on the final years of their deals like a Brunson or a Finney-Smith, you have to weigh what you value the most. Is he essential to your championship run this season? Does he want to stay? Do you want to re-sign him? If he hits the open market in search of an offer, is there a handshake agreement to let you match? What are your team’s needs and current obligations, and how does that all fit in? Are you far enough under the luxury tax limit to do that without taking a big hit to future financial flexibility? Or are you better off letting him go for nothing and saving the money on your cap? Better yet, can you get a sign-and-trade partner this summer? Is he improving, slowing down, or at his peak value? What could you realistically get for him?
All of this has to be weighed concurrently. General managers get intel from players and agents as well as from the same scribes and reporters they leak to. Quid pro quo, Clarice.
Think Like a General Manager
My biggest pet peeve with NBA Twitter and sports talk radio (not you, Jake) is when I hear people have arguments that have no basis in reality. Think like the decision-makers. If you were in charge, on both sides of the transaction, would you make the deal you are proposing? Kevin Love for Bradley Beal works under the salary cap rules, but c’mon.
Players with years left on their deals are harder to move unless they are stars or are on their way. Think like the other team and what their incentives are to make a deal. Jalen Brunson is a player outplaying his $1.8 million-per-year contract. I don’t want to trade him, but as an example, that means you have to attach players to him to get someone worthy of him back. Do you have to attach picks or take back bad money for a team to swallow those added years? Or vice versa? How does that affect the cap, roster, needs, etc.? Picks aren’t free. First-round picks are valuable, and the Mavs have only one of their 2027 or 2028 first-round picks to add to a deal. Is the player you want (or the player you want off of) important enough to add that sweetener when this will hamstring your efforts to make deals for years to come as newer stars inevitably come on the market? The Porzingis trade was three years ago but including two firsts prevented the Mavs from being serious bidders for the many players changing teams over the past few years, from future Hall of Famers like Chris Paul to championship difference-makers like Jrue Holiday.
You also have to think about timing and value. Think back to January 2019 and Dennis Smith Jr. The Mavs saw that Doncic’s explosion onto the scene was faster than anticipated and that putting the ball in his hands was the best route forward. Smith Jr., meanwhile, was in the second year of his rookie deal and was the ninth pick in the draft just the year before. Giving up on him sounded silly and shortsighted, but a decision had to be made then. Many wanted to wait until the end of his third season and see how he developed, how he and Luka jelled.
Unfortunately, that’s not how it works. Waiting had its own risks. It could have worked wonderfully and increased his value, or it could show that the partnership wasn’t working and tanked it, wasting a year and a half in the process. But the time for a deal was then, and the Mavs had to look at the body of work Smith Jr. had shown, project what they thought his growth was, look at the team objectives, and make a call.
We can quibble about if it was the right deal, but he was the centerpiece of the Porzingis trade. If the team had waited, there would be no comparable deal to be had. There is no Plan A, then go to Plan B, etc. All of the plans are in motion simultaneously, and you have to weigh the probabilities of success versus the opportunity cost of waiting.
Finally, keep the spin zone in mind. General managers speak publicly when they want to start a narrative. To paraphrase long-time Mavericks general manager and head coach Don Nelson when asked about this time of year, “If my lips are moving, I’m probably lying.” Sixers general manager Daryl Morey has a conundrum on his hands with Ben Simmons, who doesn’t want to play in Philadelphia despite having four years left on his deal. Everyone knows he’s on the block, so offers are low. Morey has to act like things are progressing and maximize Simmons’ value, which explains why he recently went on local radio and said he sees “deals with the Kings that would work” after Sacramento was heavily rumored to be a primary suitor for the Australian.
Why would he say that? One, to get the Kings to increase their offer. Two, to show other teams that they better increase their offers because he may just do a deal with Sacramento. Three, to appease easygoing Sixers fans that he is on the case. Beware the GM who speaks. The Kings have since reportedly pulled the plug on their interest. Whether that’s real or Sacramento using the media as a smokescreen is another matter entirely.
Keeping that luggage set or choosing to trade it for what’s behind Curtain No. 2 could lead to a trip to Tahiti or to a small farm animal. Monty Hall didn’t give contestants a ton to go on when making their trades. Neither does Wayne Brady, the current host. Meanwhile, Nico Harrison will have more information as he does his wheeling and dealing. We’re somewhere in between when it comes to the next week-plus, but we can at least arm ourselves with a filter to allow us to wade through the chatter, tweets, rumors, and Wojbombs.
Today marks the three-year anniversary of the Porzingis trade—the last significant move the Mavericks have made with this roster. Will the next 10 days provide another? Keep refreshing.
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