It took six games for the World Series to finish and about six seconds for the Braves victory bus to complete its parade route and, accordingly, we are now officially into the baseball offseason—and with it, Crzy Trade Rmr Szn™.
Given the avalanche of trade rumors you were too happy to fling onto the hot stove last week (only a fraction of which I had space to get to), I’m guessing I’m not going out on a limb suggesting trade season has a tendency to suck you in. I’m right there with you.
The lead storyline as far as the Rangers offseason is concerned is that ownership and management have decided it’s time to spend, which means—as Jon Daniels has put it—“discussing players in every category, every position, and every area of the market.” They plan to engage the free agents they believe fit the roster without asking first if they fit the payroll. None of that guarantees a deal; the players Texas will target will have plenty of choices, and most of them won’t be coming off a 100-loss season.
But trades? There’s some acquisition certainty there. Sure, it still takes two sides, but in free agency, everyone is competing with the same currency. Not so on the trade market. Only one team had a Justin Smoak to cash in on July 9, 2010.
Texas barely managed to win a third of its games in 2021 and boasts neither the game’s best prospect nor its very best farm system. Nonetheless, the Rangers have plenty of players who would interest other teams, particularly those that are looking to trade controllable veterans for future pieces.
But are there players the Rangers simply wouldn’t discuss? Are there players they consider off limits?
Yes. And that’s why, as you sift through all the Crzy Trade Rmr Szn™ spitballs this month—and they will soundly outnumber any free-agent whispers as the specter of a December 1 lockout looms—there are probably some you can summarily dismiss as legless. I’m here to help you filter through them with some reading of tea leaves based on lots of conversations with folks in the game.
Now, this must be said: the Nationals aren’t trading Juan Soto, but if they were, there’s little doubt that Rangers travel director Josh Shelton would be asked to dig up Cole Winn’s and Ezequiel Duran’s cell numbers.
But this isn’t about what Texas would give up to get Soto, or whether Josh Jung would be up for discussion if Shohei Ohtani landed on the trade block or if Tampa Bay put Wander Franco on the table.
It’s about identifying whether the Rangers have their own untouchables, even if not in a Juan-Soto-Untouchable sorta way. They do, and we’ll put them in three categories.
Not for sale, but we won’t hang up (so not really untouchable)
This group includes players who, over the last two years, have earned some level of confidence from the Rangers that they could be contributors to better days ahead—but who, in the right realistic scenario, would be available.
The Rangers wouldn’t shut down talks if the Athletics were to ask for the remaining two years of Isiah Kiner-Falefa control in a multiplayer deal for first baseman Matt Olson, or if the Reds insisted on Adolis Garcia and Joe Barlow as secondary pieces in a Luis Castillo trade. But Kiner-Falefa, Garcia, and Barlow are certainly part of the plan here in the meantime.
Aside from those three, here are some others who might fit that category—that is, players whose nameplates are above the line on the front office whiteboard unless the right impact-trade opportunity were to come along:
- major-league starting pitcher Spencer Howard and relievers Jonathan Hernandez, Jose Leclerc, and Nick Snyder
- major-league catchers Jonah Heim, Jose Trevino, and Sam Huff; infielders Nate Lowe, Andy Ibanez, Nick Solak, and Sherten Apostel; and outfielder Leody Taveras
- pitching prospects Dane Acker, Cody Bradford, Mason Englert, Ronny Henriquez, Cole Ragans, Yerry Rodriguez, Justin Slaten, and Avery Weems
- position-player prospects Maximo Acosta, Luisangel Acuna, Cam Cauley, David Garcia, Trevor Hauver, Yeison Morrobel, Thomas Saggese, Chris Seise, Bubba Thompson, Steele Walker, and Aaron Zavala
There are scenarios in which the Rangers probably view every one of those players as a potential factor on a 2024 contender. But if the Padres are offering outfielder Robert Hassell for the price of Acuna, Snyder, and the absorption of one year of Wil Myers at $23.5 million, odds are that Texas—having learned from hesitating on the secondary pieces of a Josh Beckett trade a decade and a half ago—would say yes before San Diego had the chance to reconsider.
Are we talking blockbuster? In that case …
Dane Dunning is the only lock to begin the 2022 season in the rotation, and he realistically has the ceiling of a third starter on a winning staff. But unless it’s a deal for someone like the aforementioned Castillo—and maybe not even in his case, since he can be a free agent after two more seasons—it would be surprising to see not only Dunning but also Taylor Hearn, A.J. Alexy, or Glenn Otto in any serious trade discussions.
I put six other players in this category—three each in a pair of subsections.
Duran, Justin Foscue, and Josh Smith: In a vacuum, it would be difficult to imagine the Rangers parting with Foscue, the 2020 first-round pick who had a dominant debut season this year, or Smith or Duran, two of the four players who came over from the Yankees in July’s Joey Gallo trade. But the reality is that the Rangers will move at least one of them at some point in the next two years—and maybe two of them, particularly if they sign a superstar shortstop this offseason—since all three are middle infielders. If the right deal comes along, maybe Texas decides now is the time to sell and capitalize on their value.
Davis Wendzel, Dustin Harris, Evan Carter: The college draftee, the trade pickup, and the high school pick have played 212 minor-league games with the Rangers—combined. There is so little track record, and the gap between the ceiling and the floor for each is massive. Wendzel has some of the organization’s best hitting metrics, but where is the ideal fit defensively? It would be difficult to find a player in the game who broke out more dramatically in 2021 than Harris, but will his newfound power survive the jump to Double-A and settle in enough to justify a first base or left field role? Is there risk that Carter’s back issues become a chronic thing? We just don’t know enough, but the Rangers are going to be extremely reluctant to move on from hitters like those three in case they turn out to be everything they’ve suggested in relatively small samples they might be.
The untouchables
By process of elimination, you’ve probably sleuthed out some of these guys—one hitter and five pitchers—though half of them aren’t exactly household names. Yet.
Jung is locked in on this list. Unless the Padres are ready to move on from their shortstop-center fielder or the Blue Jays decide it might be fun for the Rangers to have suited up two Vladimir Guerreros, Jung is going to break in with Texas as its third baseman at some point in 2022, probably early on, with the idea that it will be the start of a long, productive run. It would be even more silly for another team to bring Jack Leiter’s name up, even though he has yet to pitch professionally. Standing alongside the 2019 and 2021 first-round picks is their 2018 counterpart Winn, the righthander who won’t get to Arlington before Jung but is a fair bet to beat Leiter to the big leagues and lay claim to a long-term role toward the front of the rotation.
The other three players are also righthanders, none of whom has reached Double-A.
Ricky Vanasco has thrown 83 1/3 professional innings and hasn’t even reached High Class A, but he’s going to be added to the 40-man roster in a week and a half with a power arsenal that rivals Leiter’s. The 2017 15th-rounder has racked up nearly twice as many strikeouts (116) as hits allowed (61), and he’s healthy (plus 40 pounds sturdier) after September 2020 Tommy John surgery. Vanasco was back on the mound for the Rangers’ Fall Instructional League squad and, come spring training, he will be out-buzzed in big-league camp only by a Carlos Correa- or Clayton Kershaw-type addition.
Owen White was taken one round after Winn in 2018, and he overcame both a 2019 Tommy John surgery and a 2021 broken hand (suffered in May in his first pro start) to reach the point where he’s showing up on very short and exclusive industry-wide lists. MLB.com just named White the Most Valuable Pitcher in the Arizona Fall League as it wraps up play. He’s leading the league in opponents’ batting average, WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning), and ERA, and he throws four pitches for strikes.
Two years behind White in age and only slightly behind him in stuff and savvy is Tekoah Roby, whose 2021 was cut short in June by an elbow sprain that didn’t necessitate an operation. The 20-year-old was back pitching in instructional league games and should be turned loose in the spring. He fanned 35 and scattered 14 hits and seven walks in his 22 Class-A innings before the elbow shutdown.
Jung will be the first of the six in Arlington. Winn is likely to follow, with Leiter not far behind. Vanasco is probably next, then White, then Roby. There’s certainly the chance that one of them plays the role of Smoak when the Rangers find themselves on the cusp of something parade-worthy, but in the meantime, they’re probably as likely as any players in the organization to be around for the whole ride.
So there you have it. I would suggest that you save yourself the trouble if CTR Szn™ throws Rangers rumors at you this winter that include the words Jung, Leiter, Winn, Vanasco, Roby, or White (Owen, at least; you’re authorized to chew on a proposal involving Eli). There will be trades before the scrape of the cleats returns, but it would be a shock if any of those six scrape theirs this spring in someone else’s uniform. Otherwise? Hurl some logs on the hot stove—but please look out for runaway buses.
