The Texas Rangers begin defending their 2015 American League West crown this afternoon at 3 p.m. in Arlington against the Seattle Mariners. The team is generally expected to have a shot at the playoffs but will once again face tough competition for the division crown from the Houston Astros.
The Rangers overachieved last year — overcoming injuries and their mediocre run production and run prevention — to ride an inspiring last-season surge to the postseason. We were so inspired by their achievements that we declared them surefire World Series champions in the November issue of D Magazine, even though our press deadlines meant we had to write that before the 2015 postseason even began. So maybe you can blame us for jinxing the team and causing this:
Man, I know it was heartbreak for Rangers fans, but what a game. And what a season they had. They should be so lucky as to achieve as much as they did last year. A few key dates in the season to come:
- April 4 — Opening Day against the Seattle Mariners, which will include your first attempt at eating the monstrous new Wicked Pig sandwich and faring no better than Morning News writer Evan Grant: [d-embed]
My buddy @Evan_P_Grant eats the Wicked Pig, a #yuge sandwich now available at @Rangers games. It's good! pic.twitter.com/28qnJSXVcO
— Sarah Blaskovich (@sblaskovich) March 31, 2016
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- May 13-15 — Toronto Blue Jays visit Globe Life Park. Of course, the Rangers will be up in Toronto the week before, so if there’s to be any payback (via a beanball) for The Bat Flip Heard Round the World, could be it’s taken care of up in Canada. I wouldn’t blame the Rangers for waiting to put on a show for the home crowd though.
- May 27-29 — Interleague play this year will bring NL Central teams to town for the first time in a few years, starting with the Pittsburgh Pirates for a three-game set.
- June 24-26 — The Red Sox visit, and while this inevitably means the ballpark will be overrun by obnoxious Boston fans, this is the final season for their slugger David Ortiz, who’s one of the great baseball characters of the last 15 years.
- August 14 — The Rangers host the Detroit Tigers, but more importantly, it’s Adrian Beltre bobblehead day. The figurine will feature a removable helmet so that you can pat Beltre on the head. Yes, I’ve buried the lede in this post.
- October 2 — Last day of the regular season, a home game against the Tampa Bay Rays. But will it be the Rangers’ last game of 2016 period?
Let’s see what the “experts” make of the Rangers’ playoff chances.
NBC Sports
While acknowledging there’s a lot to like about this Texas team, they also express uncertainties about how pitcher Yu Darvish will perform in his return from Tommy John surgery and whether Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre can maintain last year’s production. That leads to calling a second-place finish in the division and a wild-card berth.
SB Nation
Much the same uncertainties about all the things that have to break the Rangers’ way for a successful season lead to prediction of a third-place finish in the AL West.
Sports Illustrated
They’ve got seven experts making playoff predictions for 2016. Only one of them has no room at all for the Rangers in the postseason. Three say the Rangers will appear in the Wild Card game, finishing behind the Astros. Three say Texas will win the AL West. Two of them predict a World Series appearance — and concomitant American League championship. But one fellow — writer Tom Verducci — takes the bold stand of declaring that the Rangers will win it all, over the Chicago Cubs. Of course, such a scenario would also elevate the Rangers to most-hated-team status for a wide swath of the country that’s been waiting 108 years for a Cubs championship, but try not to let that bother you.
CBS Sports
Of their five experts (one of whom is also on the SI list), none see a World Series championship this year for the Rangers, but two expect an American League crown. And while only one of them calls a first-place finish for Texas, three others are predicting a Wild Card berth.
USA Today
Two of its seven writers are granting Texas the AL West crown, while four others are saying a Wild Card berth and a second-place finish behind the Astros. Two expect the Rangers to reach the American League Championship Series, and one envisions Texas winning the World Series over the #DevilMagic St. Louis Cardinals.
Fox Sports
One of their seven experts is actually a poll voted on by fans. Of the group, three are reserving the AL West title for the Rangers. Three others are saying a Wild Card berth. It’s the fans who leave Texas out of the playoff picture entirely. Only one Fox expert — writer Ken Rosenthal — is putting the Rangers in the World Series, where they will lose to Chicago Cubs. Which sounds like the absolute ideal scenario to me. Feel free to disagree.
ESPN
The Worldwide Leader has 31 of its staffers predicting the outcome of the 2016 MLB season. Among that group, the Rangers earn 10 division titles and 10 Wild Card berths. Only Jerry Crasnick predicts a World Series in Arlington this year, which he’s saying Texas is going to win over the San Francisco Giants.
Dallas Morning News et al
Now for the homers at the city’s daily. The frustratingly-difficult-to-read predictions of their crew of 10, which includes folks from Fox Sports Southwest, Channel 5, and the Houston Chronicle, have six of them giving the AL West to the Rangers, while three others say Wild Card slot. (It’s Tim Cowlishaw who leaves Texas out of the playoff picture.) Three of them say the Rangers will make it to the World Series, and two of those — DMN Rangers beat writer Evan Grant and Mike Ryhner of the Ticket — expect the season to end with a World’s Championship.
OK, that’s enough of what humans — inevitably biased by how teams did last year and/or splashy free agent signings — think of what’s to come. What do the dispassionate, entirely statistically-based models say via running thousands of simulated seasons? There are two major sites which can tell us.
FanGraphs
They are not bullish on the Rangers at all, slotting them in last place in the American League West. It should be noted, however, that’s with an average record just under .500 and only six games separating the Rangers from supposedly-first-place Houston. The division is therefore bunched tightly enough that things could easily break the other way around for all the teams.
Baseball Prospectus
The BP model imagines them with a slightly worse record than does Fan Graphs, but actually finishing in third place because the Athletics and Angels will be even worse. Still, because that mediocre record could break Texas’ way in a middling division, they put the Rangers’ odds of reaching at least the Wild Card game at 22%, and the “real” playoffs (at least the Division Series) at 17.7%.
And, now, the moment I know you’ve been dying for: My pick.
There’s too much that will have to break the Rangers’ way to make this a repeat of last year’s magical season. Third place in the AL West, no trip to the playoffs. Sorry.
