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HOW TO PICK A WINNER

Forget computers. Put your money on this track old-timer.
By M.S. |

EXPERTS WITHIN THE HORSE RACING INDUSTRY CONTEND THAT handicapping thoroughbreds, when it’s done correctly, ranks as a science. If that is the case, then East Dallas resident Woody Harrell should shortly be receiving a Nobel Prize. If people at Perkins Seminary at SMU qualify as biblical scholars, then Harrell must be regarded as Texas’ ranking Racing Form sage. His unpublished doctoral thesis-“Winning Tips on Thoroughbred Racing and Handicapping’’-was written in 1985.

Harrell, 80, describes himself as retired. He used to own a chemical company, but his mind has been immersed in interpretation of the natural laws of horseback logic and probability since! 960. On the morning of a race day at Lone Star Park, Harrell’s breakfast table looks like a CPA’s desk on April 14. He is calculating the average earnings per start of every horse in every race. He is applying his own point system that is based on a horse’s positioning at various intervals in its previous two starts. He is looking for the rare horse that can rattle off “even 12s,” those being consistent 12-second furlongs. “Secretariat ran even 12s for a mile and a half at the Belmont Stakes in 1973 and won by 31 lengths,” Harrell points out.

Computer programs have become the hot item for the everyday horseplayer. Harrell has studied that technology and says, “Some programs will win occasionally, but they won’t win all the time. If they did, then IBM would have built a computer as big as this kitchen designed to do nothing but pick horses.”

Harrell is not a professional gambler, although he professes to know some. He also once had an acquaintance who purchased a thoroughbred colt. “I checked that horse’s background in the ’Thoroughbred Breeders Guide.’ I wish my friend had talked with me earlier,” Harrell says, “I could have saved him $125,000.”

A session with Harrell is like a chat with the Dalai Lama about the meaning of life. His conversation is rich with simple truths: Horses that finish second very frequently win their next race. Whenever you see a filly running against colts and geldings, then that filly’s trainer is confident she’s due a big race. Whenever you see an LI listed next to a horse, that means the horse is medicated with lasix [a diuretic] for the first time and might be apt to run a good race.

I talked to Harrell for almost two hours and came away with a notebook full of material-the better parts of which I intend to keep for myself. However, as a free service to the reader, here are some passages from Harrell’s handicapping thesis.

WOODY’S TRACK COMMANDMENTS

1. Front running horses win a fair share of the races.

2. Horses which won their last race merit top consideration.

3. Give consideration to fourth place finishers if they finished strongly.

4. Money winnings are an important part of a horse’s racing ability and should be used extensively in handicapping.

5. Speed ratings are a good idea but dont use them as a total basis for your handicapping.

6. Handicap the horses, not the trainer

7. Pocket computer and slide rule selections are not consistent enough to make you a winner.

8. Wishful betting on longshots is not recommended.

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