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ERFS, NERFS, AND CERFS: THE EX-RANGER FACTOR

Why are the best Rangers the Ex-Rangers?
By Dan Baldwin |

BY NOW EVERY true baseball buff has trembled before the statistical labyrinth of books like The Bill James Baseball Abstract, with its Pythagorean projections showing how many hits left-handed pitchers over six feet tall yield to right-handed shortstops from Wyoming, and how often a third-inning grounder scores what would have been the winning run in a game that is eventually rained out, etc. Enough already. Here’s our own sure-fire formula for picking the pennant winners. You’ve heard of the WP, the ERA, the RBI. Now meet the ERF-the Ex-Ranger Factor.

The ERF figures a team’s fortunes by examining the number and quality of Ex-Rangers on the team’s twenty-five-man roster. Consider that three of the four teams that made it to the League Championship Series in 1985 had Ex-Rangers. The Toronto Blue Jays, who won more regular season games than any other team in the American League, had three. One of Toronto’s ERs, Al Oliver, won two playoff games with clutch hits.

Does this mean the ERs are always a plus? Will a benchload of ERs guarantee a pennant? Uh-uh. The Rangers themselves are loaded with Future Ex-Ranger Factors (FERFs) just waiting to become ERFs, and have yet to cop the flag. The mighty ERF works in mysterious ways. Now that the St. Louis Cardinals have acquired Mike Heath, Rangers Class of 1973, they may learn how to lose gracefully from an ER who has lost with the worst of them.

Obviously ERFs provide for the development of several categories. Coming Ex-Ranger Factors are CERFs, such as the Ron Darlings and Walt Terrells and Tom Henkes. Teetering Ex-Ranger Factors (TERFs) are players who could go either way-the Mike Smithsons and John Butchers and Ed Lynchs. The most blessed teams have at least one SMERF-a Solidly Mature Ex-Ranger Factor such as a Jim Sundberg or Dave Righetti.

But it all boils down to the picks, and that’s where the ERF comes in. Kansas City will repeat in the AL West, owning a most influential SMERF. It’s Toronto in the AL East, with a CERF who could easily be the difference. L.A. takes it all in the NL West, as Rick Honeycutt, who has pitched well but been unlucky, metamorphoses from a TERF to a SMERF.

And the Mets are set to overtake the pack in the NL East, as Ron Darling and Ed Lynch create an unbeatable combination, (dare I say it?) the CERF and TERF.

The ERF: predicting has never been so easy.



NOTABLE EX-RANGERS AND THEIR RECORDS SINCE LEAVING TEXAS:



.Ron Darling



New York Mets-1984: 12-9, 3.81; 1985: 16-6, 2.90. Has become a vital part of the best young staff in the National League. A player on the rise. Traded to the New York Mets on April 1.1982 straight up for Lee Mazzilli, who sulked his way through less than a year with the Rangers.



.Walt Terrell



Detroit Tigers-1984: 11-12, 3.52; 1985: 15-10, 3.85. Also part of the Mazzilli deal.



.Tom Henke



Toronto Blue Jays-1985: 3-3, thirteen saves, 2.03 ERA. Gave up twenty-nine hits in forty innings with forty-two strikeouts. One of the league’s promising young relievers, Henke was left unprotected by the Rangers and picked up in the compensation draft after the Rangers signed free agent Cliff Johnson. Big Cliff lasted less than a season with the Rangers.



.Rick Honeycutt



Los Angeles Dodgers-1984: 10-9, 2.84; 8-12 in ’85, but his ERA of 342 would have ranked him second to Charlie Hough in the Rangers’ starting rotation, and more than a full run ahead of any other full-time Ranger starter. Honeycutt was traded to Los Angeles in 1983 for Dave Stewart who went 7-14.4.73 in 1984; 0-6, 5.42 ERA in 1985-plus one arrest-before being traded to the Phillies.



.Dave Righetti



New York Yankees-1981 Rookie of the Year, pitched a no-hitter July 4,1983 on his way to a 14-8 record and posted a 12-7 and 2.78 ERA in ’85. He’s been badly yanked around by the Yankees, but has still produced. Still considered to have one of the “livest” arms in baseball. Traded to the Yankees as part of a multi-player deal in 1978, the principal player being Sparky Lyle, who is no longer in the majors.



.Jim Sundberg



Kansas City Royals-left Rangers after the ’83 season. Sundberg had a better year at the plate in ’84 than ’85, but his role with the Royals1 young and talented pitching staff in ’85 cannot be overestimated. What if he had been handling-for the Rangers- the pitchers listed above? But Sunny, the league championship and World Series hero in 1985, was traded for Ned Yost and Dan Scarpetta, wherever they are.



.Mike Hargrove



Cleveland Indians-batted .318 with men in scoring position in his first six seasons with the Rangers. Hargrove has a career average over .290. He was traded to San Diego (who made the same mistake by trading him to Cleveland) in a multi-player deal in which the Rangers received Oscar Gamble. Gamble lasted less than a year in Texas.



.Ed Lynch



New York Mets-1984: 9-8, 4.50 ERA; 1985: 10-8. 3.44 ERA. Traded to the New York Mets, September 18, 1979, in a deal that brought Willie Montanez to the Rangers. Montanez is no longer in the majors.



.Mike Smithson



Minnesota Twins- 30-27 the past two years in a real hitters’ park and with no relief help. Traded to the Twins for Gary Ward, now the Rangers’ regular left fielder.



.John Buthcer



Minnesota Twins-24-25 under the same circumstances. Only Charlie Hough has a better record among Ranger starters. Also part of the Ward trade.

Who will be the next ex-Ranger? No telling. But look for Buddy Bell, the newest and most prominent ER as of this writing, tohave a great year in Cincinatti. Bell’s slow start in Cincy (after hisliberation from Texas last July) must have been a result of his verylong tenure here. Perhaps that short slump can be blamed on theNERF-the New Ex-Ranger Factor.

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