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ERCOT Issues Energy Conservation Alert Through 8 p.m. Here’s What You Need to Know.

With another day of triple digit temperatures, the agency that operates the state’s electrical grid is pleading for conservation and warning of the possibility of rolling blackouts. Tuesday’s conditions will be similar.
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Last Updated, 7/11, 4:30 p.m.

The temperature again sailed past 100 degrees in North Texas Monday afternoon. On Sunday evening, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas called for conservation and warned that the grid may not be able to provide the power needed to keep everyone cool. This tightrope walk will likely continue for the next two days as well.

That statewide call to voluntarily conserve electricity was between the hours of 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. It also issued a watch for “a projected reserve capacity shortage” for the same time frame, but stopped short of predicting imminent blackouts. Which is good, because it looks like the state will avoid those—on Monday, at least.

“At this time, no system-wide outages are expected,” read the ERCOT alert Sunday night, which added that conservation is a tool it has used more than 40 times in the last 14 years, primarily when projected reserves fall below 2,300 megawatts for 30 minutes or longer. At about 10:30 a.m., reserves had fallen to somewhere around 4,186 megawatts. Just before 2 p.m. ERCOT announced that it was issuing a more urgent “yellow” alert because reserves were dipping perilously close to 3,000 megawatts. This was the final alert before the agency has permission to order rolling blackouts.

Here’s the language from Energy Emergency Level 1, which is what will come next: “ERCOT operators have the authority to call on all available power supplies, including power from other grids, if available.”

By this afternoon, projections indicate that the state could set record electric demand with 80 gigawatts of use, well above what ERCOT predicted for the peak for the summer in its May preparedness report. As of 4:30 p.m., statewide demand was a little over 78,000 megawatts.

ERCOT’s dashboard showed demand could outpace supply between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. It also indicated that there was “no market solution available” to increase reserves. Again, expect similar conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday, at least.

On Monday, ERCOT predicted wind generation would drop to about 8 percent capacity. Solar power would be at about 81 percent capacity, but that provides the smallest share of power to the grid overall.

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As of 4:15 or so, it looks like we have survived the day. It was a really close thing sometimes, with supply outpacing demand only narrowly, particularly at that 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. hour. Expect another potential spike in demand this evening as people come home from work, adjust the thermostat, start dinner, and maybe throw a load of laundry in. (It would be a good idea to forego adjusting the thermostat and delay laundry until after 8 p.m.)

The National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office said that Monday marked the 38th day without measurable rainfall. The record is 40 consecutive days, in 2019. It’s not going to get any cooler anytime soon. It would not be a surprise if ERCOT issues another formal conservation request for Tuesday at some point Monday evening.

Temperatures have been higher than 100 for several days and will likely continue to be in the triple digits for the whole week. As such, we’re all using more electricity than usual. The agency Monday attributed the lower reserves because wind generation is coming in at less than 10 percent of its capacity, although solar power reached just about full generation capacity.

But those are smaller matters. Texas still gets a majority of its energy from thermal plants, and on Monday morning, energy analyst Doug Lewin said those thermal plants were proving unreliable in the heat. In a Twitter thread, he outlined some of the issues that are exacerbating the grid’s potential inability to keep up with demand.

“Here’s the truth: wind and solar today will be very close to where they’re expected to be on average summer days—and once again, gas and coal plants are proving far less reliable than advertised,” he said. “Wind and solar are so predictable that ERCOT knew this was coming a week ago. On July 5, they projected that Texas would produce 5,731 MW of wind power, almost exactly what they expect today.”

Knowing why we might be sweating in the dark at some point this week is probably zero comfort, but ERCOT says that conservation may prevent it. That means bumping up thermostats to 78 or more; not running appliances like dishwashers, washing machines, and dryers; and turning the pool pump off for a while. That may have helped into the afternoon Monday, when demand remained below the state’s supply of energy reserves.

Still: Monday’s close call is a good reminder that, should we end up with a rolling blackout situation later this week, it would be good to go check on any vulnerable folks you might know (like the elderly) and make sure they’re prepared should something happen. The city of Dallas has also set up cooling stations, but calling before you head over may be a good idea, since those also rely on power to keep cool.

Here’s to making it through Monday night. And then we can wake up and do this dance again.

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Bethany Erickson

Bethany Erickson

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Bethany Erickson is the senior digital editor for D Magazine. She's written about real estate, education policy, the stock market, and crime throughout her career, and sometimes all at the same time. She hates lima beans and 5 a.m. and takes SAT practice tests for fun.

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