Your Dallas Mavericks have a few games left — including tonight against the Spurs, who are resting pretty much everyone of note — but there hasn’t been much to play for since loss No. 42, guaranteeing the squad its first full losing season in the Mark Cuban era. But that’s OK! It was clear very early on this was a rebuilding year, if that. The out-of-nowhere emergence of Yogi Ferrell, the surprise acquisition of Nerlens Noel, and the steady growth of Harrison Barnes into a potential superstar made the season a success, albeit in a way Mavs’ fans are not used to. But now it’s time to think about next year. Which means the draft, and crossing your fingers and every other possible appendage in hopes of landing Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball or another high-end rookie. We haven’t had one of those in a while.
Will it happen? That depends on how you feel about 18-year-old French point guards. To the draft simulator!
ESPN’s Lottery Mock Draft is now live. As you can see, the Mavs’ current record gives them a 1.7 percent chance to win the top spot in the draft, just slightly better than five of the 14 lottery-bound teams. In the interest of science, I played the lottery 10 times. In nine of those 10 scenarios, the Mavericks picked either ninth or tenth, and every time they selected Frank Ntilikina.
Who’s he? you might be asking. You’re probably asking. Ntilikina is an 18-year-old Belgian-born point guard who plays for Strausborg in the French Pro A league. So another Roddy Beaubois? Not exactly. At this stage, he is more of a work in progress than Roddy was when he arrived.
First, do not look at his pro stats if you want to be excited by the idea of Ntilikina — it just never looks right when I type it — coming to Dallas. He’s mostly earned his rep on a fairly dominant performance at the FIBA U18 European Championships in December — which is a very small sample size (six games) to be sure. Anyway, he’s 6-foot-5 with long arms, so that’s good and I have a couple of months to get excited about this. As it stands now, though, if I’m being fully honest, this seems like pretty much every other eh draft pick the team has made since [squints] oh, man, 2003?
Now, in exactly one of those 10 simulated lottery scenarios — the fifth time I played — the Mavs moved up to the No. 2 slot and picked Lonzo Ball, who would be one of the top-five passers in the league right at this moment. So there is something to hope for.
But, yeah, unlikely to happen. Because it didn’t take terribly long, I played the lottery 90 more times. (Seriously, it was just clicking then recording the result, so please save those cards and letters; I’m going to be OK.) Out of the 100 total times I played, the Mavs got the No. 1 pick only one time, the No. 2 pick twice, No. 3 three times, and No. 11 once. The other 93 times, they ended up with the 9/10 pick.
What I’m saying is: maybe start preparing yourself for the Frank Ntilikina era.
