In a new poll by the Texas Tribune and University of Texas, the governor leads his challenger 39% to 33% with 22% undecided. The poll has a margin of error just over 3%.
The good news for White is that Perry is basically where he was in 2006, when he won re-election with a plurality, not a majority. The undecideds could be the key.
The good news for Perry is the turnout equation:
“White has not yet faded and remains in striking distance of Perry,” says Daron Shaw, a government professor at the University of Texas who oversees the UT/Tribune poll with his colleague Jim Henson. “The downside for White is that Perry is up by 18 points among those who say they are extremely likely to vote. White needs a big turnout among young voters and minorities to be competitive.”
A “big turnout among young voters and minorities” is not the key to success in a non-presidential election. So, although the poll reveals Perry’s continuing weakness, the odds still go to the Guv.
