Yet Another Poll Says Perry Has 49%

This one puts Perry near the magical 50.1, with Hutchison at 29, and Medina at 19%. A curious fact: both polls show Hutchison with about the same level of support; the variance is between Perry’s and Medina’s numbers. It could just be methodology, or the margin of error (which I can’t find in this new one, but here are the cross-tabs for anyone who wants to do my work for me). For the sake of argument, let’s assume both polls use roughly the same methodology, with a margin of error of 4.8%. That would say to me that a substantial number of voters are swinging between Perry and Medina. The idea that Medina is taking votes from Hutchison appears to be fanciful.

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